Whalesbook
So, pehle baat karte hain AM/NS India ke results ki. Yaar, inki Q1 2026 mein jo EBITDA hai na, woh seedha 93% badh kar $195 million par pahunch gayi! Sales 12% upar $1.62 billion aur sales volume 6% zyada. Matlab, sab kuch achha chal raha hai.
Aur is zabardast performance ke baad, company ne ek dum bombshell announce kiya hai – woh log Andhra Pradesh ke Rajayyapeta mein $7.5 billion se lekar $8.0 billion tak ka ek mega integrated steel plant lagane wale hain. Ye plant paanch se cheh saal mein banega aur iski initial capacity 8.2 million tonnes per annum hogi. Parent company ArcelorMittal ka global EBITDA bhi 6% badha hai, par India ka plan iske comparison mein kaafi bada lag raha hai.
Lekin yahan par thodi chinta ki baat hai. Ye $8 billion ka mega project koi mazak nahi hai. Phase 1 mein hi kaafi paisa lagega, aur pura project 24 million tonnes tak ja sakta hai. Aur sabse badi baat, global steel ki demand 2026 mein sirf 0.3% grow hone ka andaza hai. Haan, India mein demand achhi hai (7.4% se 10% growth), par pure world mein market slow hai.
Fir aati hai execution ki baat. Project 2030-2031 tak chalu hoga, matlab lamba time hai aur is beech cost badh sakti hai ya koi approvals lene mein mushkil ho sakti hai. Aur ArcelorMittal ka khud ka net debt $9.3 billion hai aur Q1 mein $1.3 billion free cash outflow hua hai. Public soch rahi hai ki is paison ko manage kaise karenge?
Sabse interesting baat ye hai ki valuation ka difference. ArcelorMittal ka P/E ratio lagbhag 15 ke aas paas hai. Jabki India ke JSW Steel aur Tata Steel jaise competitors 37-53 aur 27-39 ke multiples par trade kar rahe hain. Iska matlab hai ki investors Indian companies ke growth aur efficiency ko zyada value de rahe hain. Isse lagta hai ki public is bade greenfield project par thoda cautious hai, especially jab global overcapacity aur supply chain issues hain.
Analysts ka view bhi mixed hai, consensus rating 'Hold' ke aas paas hai. Kuch logo ne economic risks ke karan ratings kam kiye hain, toh kuch European trade policies aur careful spending ko positive man rahe hain. End mein, is Rajayyapeta project ka success AM/NS India ki execution, regulations aur India mein demand par depend karega. Tabhi shareholders ko ye bada investment justify ho payega.