Whalesbook
Analyst ka naya outlook kya kehta hai?
Choice Institutional Equities ne ACC ke liye apna 'BUY' recommendation phir se pakda hai, bas price target ko ₹2,475 se kam karke ₹2,200 kar diya hai. Ye decision Ambuja Cement ke saath hone wale amalgamation aur uske share swap ratio ko dekh kar liya gaya hai. Brokerage abhi bhi positive hai kyunki unko merger se group synergy ke fayde dikh rahe hain, ACC Southern India mein apna market share badhana chahta hai, aur unka 'Parvat' naam ka cost-reduction program chal raha hai, jiska target FY28 tak ₹500 per ton saving hai. Experts ko cement sector mein bhi achhi growth 7-8% dikh rahi hai FY26 mein, aur prices bhi stable rehne ki umeed hai.
Ambuja-ACC Merger ki Kahani
Yaad hai na, Ambuja Cement aur ACC ka merger December 2025 mein dono boards ne approve kar diya tha. Is deal ke hisab se, Ambuja Cements 100 ACC shares ke badle 328 equity shares (₹2 face value wale) dega. Plan hai ki ek unified 'One Cement Platform' banaya jaye, jisse operations mein kaafi sudhar hoga aur cost savings bhi honge, jo ₹100 per ton se zyada ho sakte hain. Jab sabhi approvals mil jayengi, toh management ko umeed hai ki growth aur synergies tezi se milenge. Haan, Q3 FY26 mein consolidated net profit 63% gir gaya tha due to higher expenses aur pichhle saal ke one-off income ke na hone se, par revenue 22% badha hai volumes ki wajah se. Company ne sabse zyada, 11.3 million tonnes ka quarterly sales volume record kiya hai.
Market aur Sector ka Scene
Indian cement industry mein aage bhi growth ki umeed hai, FY26 mein 6.5-7.5% aur FY27 mein 6-7% ki expansion predict ki ja rahi hai. Yeh growth government ke housing aur infrastructure projects aur construction activities se aa rahi hai. Companies 150-160 MT capacity add karne ka plan bana rahi hain FY25 se FY28 ke beech mein. ACC aur Ambuja Cement milkar 100 MTPA capacity cross kar chuke hain. Lekin itni zyada capacity add hone se short term mein thoda utilization pressure aa sakta hai, aur analysts ko FY27-28 mein prices mein sirf 1.5-2% ki increase ki umeed hai. ACC ki market cap abhi lagbhag ₹31,041 crore hai (February 1, 2026 tak).
Performance aur Valuation Metrics
Q3 FY26 mein ACC ka result mix tha. Revenue toh badha, par net profit 63% kam ho gaya tha operating costs badhne aur exceptional income na hone ki wajah se. EBITDA margins bhi 10.8% se ghat kar 18.7% ho gaye the. Lekin, company ne record quarterly sales volume register kiya, jo operational strength dikhata hai. Valuation dekhein toh, ACC ka current Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio 11-15x ke aas-paas hai, jo 5-year average P/E 33.6x se kaafi kam hai. Analyst ke ₹2,200 ke target price se FY28E ka P/E 15.2x nikalta hai, jo current levels se upside dikha sakta hai, par historical average se kam hai.