Whalesbook
Orders Toh Bade, Par Profit Kahan Gaya?
Dekho, company ne FY26 ke pehle quarter mein orders toh 25% tagde increase kiye hain, jisse order book aur bhi bhar gayi hai. Lekin yeh order growth revenue mein itna dikha nahi, bas 5.8% badha aur ₹3,184 crore tak pahuncha. Asli dhamaaka toh margins mein hua, EBITDA margins 576 basis points tight ho gaye aur 12.8% par aa gaye, pichhle saal yeh 18.6% the. Profit after tax toh 25% gir gaya, ₹342 crore ho gaya. Ye sab inputs ki badhti hui costs (jaise copper, aluminium), forex ki upar-neeche, aur market mein zyada competition ki wajah se ho raha hai. Jo Net Profit dikh raha hai ₹1,658 crore, woh basically robotics business bechne se aaye ek-time gain ki wajah se hai, asal operational performance ko yeh chhipa raha hai.
Analyst Ne Kheencha Brake: 'Hold' Rating!
Ab is mixed performance ko dekh kar hi Prabhudas Lilladher jaise analysts ne stock ko 'Hold' rating de di hai aur target price ₹6,523 rakha hai. Kyun? Kyunki pichhle ek saal mein stock already 33% bhag chuka hai, market se kaafi aage nikal gaya. Aur yeh jo margin par pressure bana hua hai, aur order book badhne ke baad bhi actual profit na dikhna, isse analysts ko lagta hai ki stock ka valuation thoda zyada hai.
Sector Mast, Par Valuation Stretched?
Sector ki baat karein toh situation toh mast hai. India mein government infra par ₹11.2 lakh crore kharch kar rahi hai FY2026 mein. Data centers, renewable energy, yeh sab cheezein industrial automation aur electrification ko badha rahi hain. Forecast hai ki industrial automation market 8.41% CAGR se badhega 2026 se 2031 tak. Lekin ABB India ka valuation dekho, P/E ratio 78x se 96x ke beech mein hai, jabki industry median toh sirf 30.62x hai. Siemens India jaisi company ka P/E bhi 65.4x hai. Isliye Prabhudas Lilladher ne bhi future ke liye 56x P/E ka target rakha hai.
Aage Kya Hai Outlook?
Future mein cost pressure ek bada concern rahega. Margin ka itna girna dikhata hai ki revenue growth ko profit mein badalna mushkil ho raha hai. Input costs, forex ke alawa, Siemens India, L&T, Schneider Electric India jaise players se bhi competition full hai. Company $75 million invest bhi kar rahi hai manufacturing badhane mein, jisse short-term margins par pressure aa sakta hai. Robotics business bech diya hai, toh ab sirf electrification aur motion segments par hi rely karna padega.
Aage kya? Company ko double-digit revenue growth ki umeed hai, order execution aur enquiry pipeline mast hai, especially data centres se jo backlog ka 10-12% hai. 'Hold' rating ka matlab yeh nahi ki business kharab hai, bas stock bahut bhag gaya aur valuation thoda high lag raha hai. Investors ab dekhenge ki company cost volatility ko kaise manage karti hai aur margins ko kaise recover karti hai, taaki yeh premium valuation justify ho sake.