Whalesbook
Yaar, ABB India mein orders kaafi bhari bharkam aa rahe hain. Q4 CY25 mein, order inflows 52% saal-dar-saal badh kar ₹4,090 Cr ho gaye. Ye pichhle paanch saalon mein sabse accha Q4 order intake tha!
Base orders mein 27% ka jump tha, aur bade orders bhi aaye, especially data centres mein jiska share ab 10-11% ho gaya hai total order book ka. Electrification segment mein 43% ki tezi thi, Process Automation mein 34%, aur Robotics mein toh 283% ka dhamaka! Is sab se order backlog ₹10,470 Cr par pahunch gaya hai, jo 2026 tak revenue ki acchi visibility de raha hai.
Company data centres, renewables, automotive, aur infrastructure jaise growing sectors mein well-positioned hai. Aur upar se government ka capex push (FY27 tak ₹12.2 lakh Cr) bhi demand ko support kar raha hai.
Ab aate hain profit waale hisse par, jahan situation thodi tricky hai. Revenue toh badha, par profitability dab gayi. Adjusted EBITDA 7% gir gaya aur margin 230 basis points kam hokar 17.2% par aa gaya.
Is profit erosion ke peeche kai wajah hain: product mix ka theek na hona, commodity costs ka badhna, forex mein utaar-chadhav, aur QCO regulations ke karan import ka badhna. Material costs ab revenue ka 61% ho gaya hai, jo pehle 58% tha. QCO compliance ke liye company September 2026 tak imported materials use kar rahi hai. Full year CY25 ke liye PBT margin 16.9% raha. Naye labour code se bhi ₹650 million ka additional expense hua.
Management ko umeed hai ki QCO-related costs stable hone par aur volumes badhne par margin sudrega, lekin filhal ye input cost headwinds pressure bana rahe hain. Electrification division ko QCO aur forex fluctuations ne zyada affect kiya hai.
Itni acchi orders ki growth aur margin pressure ke beech, investors ke mann mein valuation ka bada sawaal hai. ABB India ka P/E ratio 69x se 75x ke aas-paas chal raha hai, jo ki Indian Electrical industry ke average P/E 25.4x se kaafi upar hai. Competitors jaise L&T 35-42x aur Siemens 60-75x par trade kar rahe hain.
Itna high P/E matlab market ne future ki kaafi growth ko pehle se hi stock price mein include kar liya hai. Agar expectations poori nahi hui toh stock mein girawat aa sakti hai. Market cap lagbhag ₹1.26-1.28 lakh Cr ke aas-paas hai. Balance sheet toh strong hai, debt almost zero, par kai analysts ne is high P/E ko dekh kar 'Hold' rating di hai.
Bear case ye hai ki company apne bade order book ko sustainable, higher margins mein kaise convert karegi jab costs badh rahi hain aur competition bhi badh raha hai. QCO, forex, aur import costs pressure bana rahega.
Analysts bhi divided hain. Motilal Oswal ne 'Buy' rating dekar target ₹6,600 kiya hai, jabki JPMorgan ne 'Neutral' rating ke saath target ₹6,001 rakha hai. Baki analysts ka consensus target ₹5,374-₹5,497 ke beech hai, aur unmein se kaafi log 'Hold' rating de rahe hain.
Company ka PAT margin 12-15% corridor mein rehne ka guidance hai. To overall, growth toh dikh rahi hai, par profitabilty manage karna ABB India ke liye next challenge hoga.