Whalesbook
Toh reason kya hai bhai? Asal mein, Emkay Global Financial ko lagta hai ki ABB India ka jo current price hai woh uske fundamentals se zyada hai. Unhone target ko ₹6,400 tak badhaya toh zaroor hai, but rating 'Reduce' hi rakhi hai. Unka sabse bada concern hai 87x ka P/E ratio, jo industry average ~27x se kaafi upar hai. Apne hi history ke ~70x median P/E se bhi zyada hai yeh! Woh keh rahe hain ki company toh growth kar rahi hai, revenue 18% aur profit 58% badha hai pichle 5 saal mein, aur infra, renewables, data centers jaise sectors mein focus hai. Lekin itne high valuation par kya yeh growth already priced in hai? Yeh sawaal hai.
Aur comparison dekho toh, Siemens India 59x-77x par hai aur Havells India 41x-62x P/E par trade kar rahe hain. ABB India ka market cap toh ₹1.44 lakh crore se bhi upar hai, jo dikhata hai ki future growth already stock mein include ho chuka hai. Company ₹1.4 billion ka capex bhi kar rahi hai motor manufacturing ke liye, jo achha sign hai, aur Indian electrical equipment market bhi 14.3% per year grow hone wala hai. But itna high multiple, matlab market expect kar raha hai ki company bilkul perfect chalegi aur hamesha out-perform karegi.
Abhi kuch aur analysts bhi isi valuation par chinta jata rahe hain. Nomura aur Kotak Institutional Equities ne bhi 'Reduce' rating di hai. Sabko lagta hai ki ~87x ka P/E maintain karna mushkil hai, especially jab company khud CY25-27 ke liye 12-15% PAT margins aur EBITDA margins ko moderate karne ka forecast de rahi hai. Matlab, profit growth shayad utna fast na ho jitna current earnings multiple suggest kar raha hai. Competition bhi tez hai, aur order backlog acha hone ke bawajood, execution aur pricing power critical factors rahenge. Pichhle saal ke reports mein 'BUY' rating thi, lekin ab ~87x pe sabko doubt ho raha hai. Profitability pressure aur cyclical markets bhi risk hain.
Overall, analyst view mixed hai. Kuch log ₹6,700 ke aas-paas target de rahe hain, toh kuch ₹6,095 ya ₹6,115 tak bhi ja rahe hain. Emkay ka ₹6,400 ka target ek tarah se normalized (but still premium) valuation dikhata hai, jisse lagta hai ki current price se zyada upside abhi mushkil hai.