Whalesbook
US ki sarkaar ne pharmaceutical drugs aur unke ingredients par 100% tak ka tariff laga diya hai. Ye sab national security ke naam par ho raha hai, taaki US mein hi zyada manufacturing ho sake. Ye Section 232 ke tehat aaya hai. Bade companies ke liye 120 to 180 days mein ye tariffs lagega, aur chote companies ke liye bhi.
Par yahan ek twist hai, ji haan, exemptions!
Bade aur dost countries jaise European Union, Japan, South Korea, aur Switzerland ko sirf 15% tak ka tariff lagana padega, woh bhi unke existing trade deals ki wajah se. United Kingdom ka toh aur bhi fayda hai, unke liye toh zero tariff ho sakta hai ek naye deal ke baad. Is deal mein UK ne kaha hai ki woh naye medicines par 25% zyada kharch karega aur GDP ke hisaab se new medicines par spending double karega.
Chalo, companies kaise bachengi? Bade pharma companies jaise Merck & Co. (jo approx $120.84 par trade kar raha hai, 16.5x P/E ke saath aur $299 billion market cap ke saath), Eli Lilly and Company ($886 par, 40.72x P/E, $845 billion market cap) aur GSK Plc ($56.26 par, 14.6x P/E, $109 billion market cap) apne existing market strength aur deals se manage kar lenge.
Aur bhi offers hain zero tariff ke liye, January 2029 tak. Companies agar Department of Health and Human Services ke saath MFN (Most Favored Nation) pricing agreements par sign karti hain aur Department of Commerce ke saath manufacturing ko US mein laane ke liye commit karti hain. Agar companies sirf manufacturing onshoring ke liye agree karti hain, toh un par 20% tariff lagega, jo baad mein 4 saal mein 100% ho jayega. Aur ek achhi baat ye hai ki generic drugs, biosimilars, orphan drugs aur animal health products abhi ke liye exempt hain. Iska review ek saal baad hoga. Matlab, sarkaar bade players ko encourage kar rahi hai jo rules follow karein aur domestic investment karein.
Lekin industry groups jaise BIO isse bilkul khush nahi hain. Unka kehna hai ki ye tariffs costs badhayenge, domestic production ko rokenge aur naye treatments ki development ko slow karenge. Choti biotech companies toh zyada pareshan hain, unke paas itna paisa nahi hota ki woh domestic manufacturing sites bana sakein. Experts ka estimate hai ki $274 billion ke annual drug imports mein se sirf $12 billion par hi full 100% tariff lagega. Matlab, impact focused hai, broad nahi. Global supply chains ke chalne ke tareeke ko dekhte hue, ye measures active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs) aur finished products ke flow mein problems create kar sakte hain.
Ek bearish view se dekha jaaye toh, ye tariffs badi companies aur allies ko bachane ke liye hain, ek tarah ka two-tiered market banayenge. Asli burden choti drug aur ingredient makers par padega, jo pricing negotiate karne ya facilities banane mein weak hain. Isse market consolidate ho sakta hai aur badi companies ko fayda milega. National security ka reason pharmaceutical sector ke liye thoda controversial hai, jabki public health ke liye ye pehle se hi protected rehta hai.
Pehle toh consumer prices par zyada fark nahi padega, par choti companies ke liye operating costs badh sakte hain. Isse eventually kuch drugs ke price badh sakte hain, R&D kam ho sakta hai, ya drug shortages bhi ho sakti hain. COVID-19 ke time dekha hi hai, international partnerships kitni zaroori hain. Trade friction se global health access kharab ho sakta hai. US ki protectionist policy ke chalte doosre countries bhi steps utha sakte hain.
Aage kya hoga, ye toh dekhna padega. Negotiations chal rahi hain, aur industry kaise adapt karti hai, ye bhi important hoga. Analysts thoda cautious hain, kyuki supply chains disrupt ho sakte hain aur prices mein fluctuations aa sakte hain. Ab dekhna hai kaun kaun companies exemptions le paati hain aur choti companies badhte costs ko kaise handle karti hain.