Systematix ne actually Lupin ka target price ₹2,454 se kam karke ₹2,408 kar diya hai, aur 'Hold' rating rakhi hai. Unhone FY28 ke liye EPS forecast bhi 2% kam kar diya hai. Yeh sab Lupin ke Q4 FY26 ke results aane ke baad hua, jisme company ka revenue 32% badh kar ₹74,747 million ho gaya tha. Profit after tax bhi 89% jump karke ₹14,603 million pahunch gaya aur EBITDA 68% badha.
Lekin Systematix ko lagta hai ki FY27 se gTolvaptan, jo Lupin ka sabse bada product hai, us par competition aa jayegi. Uske baad FY28 ke second half mein gMirabegron par bhi competition ka risk hai. Isse short-term earnings par effect pad sakta hai.
Par FOMO nahi! Systematix ko FY28 ke baad growth wapas aane ki poori umeed hai. Yeh growth unke biosimilar pipeline se aayegi, jisme Pegfilgrastim, ranibizumab, aur etanercept jaise products hain. Respiratory inhaler approvals bhi help karenge, jaise gDulera.
Lupin filhaal aur bhi respiratory inhalers jaise Spiriva Respimat, Symbicort, aur Advair HFA ke liye regulatory filings kar raha hai. Ye products aane wale 2-4 saalon mein revenue generate karna shuru kar sakte hain.
Aur haan, Nirmal Bang ka bhi forecast hai ki FY26-28 mein Lupin ka revenue 4% badhega, lekin EBITDA -8% aur PAT -13% ho sakta hai.
