Whalesbook
Novo Nordisk ka Q1 earnings report May 6, 2026 ko aane wala hai, aur sabki nazar is baat par hai ki itni saari prescriptions ko company solid revenue growth mein badal paayegi ya nahi.
Wegovy ki demand toh forecasts ko bhi paar kar gayi hai, Q1 mein US mein 7.21 lakh prescriptions record hui hain. Lekin ek worrying factor yeh hai ki zyada log saste starter doses le rahe hain, jisse overall revenue kam ho sakta hai. BMO Capital Markets ka andaaza hai ki Q1 pill revenue consensus se lagbhag 12% kam ho sakti hai.
Aur jab tak yeh ho raha hai, Novo Nordisk ka obesity drug market mein lagbhag akela raj khatam ho gaya hai. April mein, Eli Lilly ki nai oral pill, Foundayo (orforglipron), ko FDA ne approve kar diya hai. Yeh seedha-seedha takkar hai, kyunki Foundayo bhi ek din mein ek baar lene wali oral pill hai. Foundayo ka sabse chota dose $149 per month hai, jo Wegovy ke starter dose ke barabar hai, isse market mein competition aur garam ho gaya hai. Eli Lilly khud bhi apne GLP-1 drugs Zepbound aur Mounjaro se Q1 mein tagda perform kar raha hai. Global GLP-1 market toh $58 billion (2026 estimate) se badh kar $268 billion (2030 tak) hone ka prediction hai.
High prescriptions ke bawajood, kuch risks hain. Sabse bada concern price war ka hai obesity drug market mein, jo sales volume badhne par bhi profits ghata sakta hai. Analysts warn kar rahe hain ki patients cheaper, lower doses par zyada time ruk sakte hain ya treatment chhod sakte hain, jisse revenue par asar padega. Yeh sab aise time ho raha hai jab Novo Nordisk ne pichhle saal kuch setbacks dekhe hain, jaise disappointing trial results aur stock mein 36.52% ki girawat.
Ab valuation ka comparison dekho: Novo Nordisk ka P/E ratio 12.1x-12.6x hai, aur market cap $151.6 billion ke aas paas. Pichhle 12 mahine mein stock 36.52% gira hai. Dusri taraf, Eli Lilly ka P/E ratio 33.6x-34.7x hai aur market cap over $910 billion hai. Eli Lilly ka stock pichhle saal 17.27% badha bhi hai. Goldman Sachs ne bhi haal hi mein Novo Nordisk ko downgrade karke $41 ka target diya hai, jo current levels se kaafi kam hai.
Experts abhi Novo Nordisk par filhaal 'Hold' rating de rahe hain aur price target $43 ke aas paas hai, matlab zyada upside nahi dikh raha. Eli Lilly ko lekar zyada confidence hai, 'Buy' ratings aur $1,200 se upar ke average price targets hain. Investors dekhenge ki Novo Nordisk ka Q1 report kya kehta hai ki kya unki nai oral therapy competition aur badalti prices ke beech market share aur profitable growth pakad paayegi.