Whalesbook
Socho, Ozempic jo pehle ₹8,800 se ₹11,175 tak aata tha, ab company uski price India mein kaafi kam karne wali hai, taaki yeh mushkil se ₹5,000-₹6,000 range mein aa sake. Yeh ek bada shift hai company ki strategy mein, kyunki ab premium pricing se zyada focus market share bachane par hai.
Asal mein, March mein patent expiry ke baad toh Indian pharma giants ne bawaal macha diya hai. Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, Zydus Lifesciences jaise companies ne apne semaglutide drugs launch kar diye hain, jo kaafi cheaper hain. Jaise Dr. Reddy's ka Obeda sirf ₹4,200 mein hai, aur Sun Pharma ke weekly options toh ₹750 se ₹2,000 mein mil rahe hain. Eris Lifesciences aur Natco Pharma toh aur bhi saste options de rahe hain, kuch toh mahine ke ₹1,290 se bhi kam mein.
Waise, India mein GLP-1 drugs ka market bahut tezi se badh raha hai. 2025 mein yeh ₹1,000–₹1,200 crore ka hoga, aur 2030 tak ₹4,500–₹5,000 crore tak pahunchne ka andaaza hai. Diabetes aur obesity ke badhte cases ke karan yeh growth pakki hai. Global forecast bhi is market ke liye 34.3% annual growth dikha raha hai.
Brokerages ki valuations dekho toh Novo Nordisk ka P/E ratio 9.94, 10.07, ya 12.68 ke aas paas hai, jo healthcare sector ke average 20.82 se kaafi kam hai. Iska matlab shayad market already lower profits ya alag growth rates anticipate kar raha hai.
Indian companies ka P/E ratio zyaada hai: Sun Pharmaceuticals 38.33-39.42, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories 17.8-19.61, Zydus Lifesciences 17.95-19.17, aur Eris Lifesciences toh 39.50-65.62 tak hai. Yeh dikhata hai ki investors ko Indian firms se generic sales se zyaada growth ki ummeed hai.
Lekin bhai, price kam karne mein risks bhi hain. Sabse bada risk toh profit margins ka kam hona hai. Jab price 30-50% kam kar rahe ho, toh earnings toh kam hongi hi. Aur yeh premium image bhi kharab ho sakta hai. India mein price control ke rules bhi hain, jo company ko hamesha cautious rakhte hain. Aur jaise Indian companies ne patent expiry ke baad turant generics launch kar diye, waise hi share gawaane ka risk bhi bana rehta hai.