Whalesbook
Market mein naya khel shuru ho gaya hai, bhai! Natco Pharma aur Eris Lifesciences ne sirf patent khatam hone ka wait nahi kiya, balki seedha India mein generic Semaglutide launch kar diya hai. Ye log market ko do hisson mein baant rahe hain – ek toh hai super affordable vial format, jo sab tak pahunchega, aur doosra hai convenient pen device, jo sheharon ke premium segment ko target karega. Bilkul wahi strategy jo competitors bhi use kar chuke hain.
Ab prices ki baat karein toh, yeh vial wala monthly dose ₹1,290 se ₹1,750 ke beech mein aa raha hai. Matlab, original drugs se lagbhag 85% tak kam! Eris ke CEO ne toh kaha hai ki yeh lagbhag 70% Indian diabetes patients ke liye affordable ho jayega. Pen devices April mein aayenge aur woh bhi high-end customers ko target karenge. Ye same strategy Eli Lilly ne Mounjaro ke liye use ki thi.
Natco Pharma ka market cap lagbhag ₹16,888 Crore hai aur P/E ratio around 11.86 hai. Analysts isko 'Neutral' rating de rahe hain, matlab thoda cautious hain. Wahi, Eris Lifesciences ki valuation ₹17,739 Crore ke aas-paas hai aur P/E ratio 41.07 se 63.97 ke beech hai. Analyst isko 'Strong Buy' keh rahe hain aur bade upside ki umeed hai. Ye sab tab ho raha hai jab Novo Nordisk, jiska share saal mein ab tak 24.8% gira hai, patent expiry face kar raha hai.
India mein Semaglutide ka market 2030 tak $2 Billion tak pahunchne ka estimate hai. Generic drugs se prices 70-90% tak gir sakte hain, jisse bade Indian population ko fayda hoga. Eris apna manufacturing bhi khud karne wala hai taaki production badha sake.
Par riske bhi kam nahi hain! Eris ka P/E ratio bahut high hai, matlab market ki expectations bahut zyada hain. Semaglutide jaise complex drugs banana aur unhe cold chain mein maintain karna thoda tricky hota hai. Upar se, 40+ companies aur 50+ brands market mein aane wale hain, jisse zabardast competition hoga. Isse prices aur margins pe pressure aayega. Novo Nordisk bhi apne patents ko lekar kaafi strict rehta hai, toh litigation ka bhi risk hai.