Whalesbook
So, hua kya hai ki global market mein petrol ke prices $70 se bhagte bhagte $120 tak pahunch gaye hain, especially Iran conflict ke baad. Isse seedha seedha pharma industry par pressure aa raha hai.
Mankind Pharma ke COO, Arjun Juneja ne bataya ki medicine banane ke liye jo API (Active Pharmaceutical Ingredients) aur petrochemicals chahiye, unki supply aur prices dono affect ho rahe hain. Asal mein, LPG aur dusre petroleum products ke rates badhne se raw material costs badh gayi hain. Packaging aur syringes jo petrochemicals se bante hain, woh bhi mehange ho gaye hain.
Filhaal toh companies apne existing inventory par chal rahi hain, par Arjun Juneja ka kehna hai ki ab ye unavoidable ho gaya hai ki dawaon ke daam badhane padenge, aur ye 1 mahine ke andar ho sakta hai.
Is situation ko aur critical banata hai ye fact ki India apni 90% crude oil ki requirement import karta hai. So, global energy market mein jo bhi gadbad hogi, uska asar humein seedha padega.
Ye issue sirf pharma sector tak seemit nahi hai. Experts keh rahe hain ki isse overall economy par pressure aayega, stagflation ho sakta hai (jab inflation aur growth slowdown dono saath mein ho) aur GDP growth bhi kam ho sakti hai. Plus, apna current account deficit badh raha hai aur rupee bhi weak ho raha hai.
Bade players jaise Sun Pharma, Dr. Reddy's Laboratories, aur Cipla bhi isse affect ho sakte hain. Jin companies ki supply chain flexible hai ya jo better hedging strategies use karte hain, woh shayad thoda better perform karein. Aur haan, logistics ka kharcha bhi lagbhag double ho gaya hai, jisse domestic aur export dono markets mein prices badh rahe hain.
Overall, raw material costs 20-50% tak badh gaye hain aur shipping bhi mehngi ho gayi hai. Isse pharma companies ke profit margins par kaafi pressure aa raha hai. Jabki Mankind Pharma par ₹7,746 crore ka net debt bhi hai, toh unke liye yeh situation aur challenging ho sakti hai.
Government ne thoda relief dene ke liye kuch petrochemicals par customs duty June 30, 2026 tak kam ki hai, but yeh sirf temporary solution hai. Aage jaake government drug prices par cap bhi laga sakti hai, jo companies ke liye ek aur problem ho sakti hai.
Arjun Juneja ne warn kiya hai ki situation normal hone mein 6 mahine se 1 saal tak lag sakta hai, depends karta hai geopolitics aur energy market kaise react karta hai. Long term mein pharma industry ka growth bahut accha hone ka forecast hai ($130 billion tak 2030 tak), but filhaal companies ko higher costs aur fragile supply chains ke saath hi deal karna padega.