Toh HCG ka Q3 FY26 performance dekha jaaye toh numbers mein thoda upar-neeche hai. Revenue toh 13% saal-dar-saal badha hai, iska credit jaata hai 8% zyada patients aur 5% higher Average Revenue Per Patient (ARPP) ko, jo ab ₹84,208 ho gaya hai. Operational efficiency bhi tagdi dikhi, jismein EBITDA 24% badhkar ₹110 crore ho gaya aur margins 17.3% tak pahunch gaye. Ye sab sectors mein demand badhne ke time mein bahut important hai, kyunki Indian multi-specialty hospital market ₹9,800 billion tak jaane ki ummeed hai 2028 tak.
Par, asli picture thodi complex hai. Profit before tax (EBT) 53% gir kar negative ₹6 crore ho gaya. Iska reason hai badhti depreciation aur finance costs. Jab aap assets badha rahe ho aur interest rates upar ja rahe hon, toh yeh cheezein profit par pressure daalti hain. Comparison mein dekhein toh competitors jaise Apollo Hospitals (jiska P/E lagbhag 61.61 hai) aur Fortis Healthcare (P/E 63.57 ke aas-paas) zyada market confidence dikha rahe hain. HCG ka TTM PE ratio bhi alag-alag sources par vary kar raha hai, kabhi 330.74x toh kabhi 59.73x. HCG ki market cap abhi around ₹8,156.1 crore hai.
Brokerage Radar:
Company ab apne future growth ke liye kaafi bada plan bana rahi hai. Agle 2-3 saalon mein 1,000 naye beds add karne ka target hai. Iske liye paisa chahiye, toh isliye yeh log ₹420 crore tak ka rights issue la rahe hain. Aim hai ki debt kam ho aur company zyada flexible bane future ke liye, kyunki KKR bhi ab promoter ban gaya hai aur unka focus India mein healthcare sector ko consolidate karna aur expand karna hai. Brokerage firm Geojit isse positive dekh rahi hai, unhone 'Buy' rating di hai aur target price ₹724 rakha hai, jo 16x FY28E EV/EBITDA par based hai.
The Bear Case:
Abhi risk kya hai? Rights issue mein dilution ka risk hai agar investors ne utna support nahi kiya ya paise sahi se deploy nahi hue toh. Saath hi, company par Debt to EBITDA ratio 3.40 times hai, jo thoda zyada hai aur rising interest rates mein thoda pressure de sakta hai. Historical performance bhi dekha toh last 3 saalon mein profit growth negative -54.82% raha hai aur ROE bhi sirf 2.26% hai. Last year stock ₹476.30 se ₹804.65 ke beech ghuma hai, matlab volatility hai.
Future Outlook:
Par agar company KKR ke saath milkar apne plans execute kar paati hai, debt manage karti hai aur naye beds se revenue grow karti hai, toh phir acha potential hai. Geojit ka upgrade isi expectation par hai ki HCG cost pressures ko manage karega aur KKR ki expertise use karega. Sabse important yeh hoga ki rights issue se mili funds ka use kaise hota hai aur company kitni jaldi profitability improve karti hai.