Whalesbook
Ab dekho, yeh oral GLP-1 drug ka race bahut garam ho gaya hai. Eli Lilly ki Foundayo (orforglipron) ko finally FDA ne green signal de diya hai, aur yeh ab seedha Novo Nordisk ke oral Wegovy se takkar legi. April 6 se yeh pill market mein aa jayegi, jo weight loss aur use maintain karne ke liye hai. Competition kaafi mazedar hone wala hai, kyunki dono oral drugs ki price $149 per month rakhi gayi hai (lowest self-pay dose par). Yeh news aate hi Eli Lilly ke stock mein 3.74% ka jump dikha, jabki Novo Nordisk ke shares thoda neeche gaye.
Lilly ka bada bet Foundayo ke ease of use par hai. Novo Nordisk ki oral Wegovy ko subah khali pet lena padta hai aur khana khane se pehle 30 minute ka wait karna padta hai. Lekin Foundayo ko kabhi bhi, khane ke saath ya bina khaye le sakte ho. Trial mein sabse zyada dose wale patients ne 12.4% body weight kam kiya tha 72 weeks mein. Haalanki, oral Wegovy ne trials mein thoda zyada weight loss (around 14%) dikhaya tha, par Foundayo ki ye convenience patients ko bahut pasand aa sakti hai.
GLP-1 market toh rocket ki tarah bhagne wala hai. Estimates ke mutabik, yeh $156 billion se lekar $268 billion tak pahunch sakta hai by 2030. Oral drugs iska ek bada hissa, shayad one-third se bhi zyada, capture karengi. Is growth se Lilly aur Novo Nordisk dono ko fayda hoga, par competition bhi badhega. Lilly ka valuation is hisaab se kaafi high hai, P/E ratio around 38.55-41.59 chal raha hai. Wahi, Novo Nordisk ka P/E ratio 9.73-10.34 hai, jo market ke alag expectations dikha raha hai. Lilly ke liye price targets around $1,177-$1,300 hain, jabki Novo Nordisk ke targets mein kaafi range hai.
Abhi risks bhi hain. Foundayo aur oral Wegovy dono mein FDA ne "boxed warning" di hai ki thyroid C-cell tumors ka risk ho sakta hai. Par recent studies keh rahi hain ki yeh humans mein common thyroid cancers ke liye itna bada risk nahi hai. Aur haan, pet kharab hona, nausea jaisi side effects to common hain hi GLP-1 drugs mein. Novo Nordisk ke liye alag challenges bhi hain, jaise ki unki drugs addiction disorders kam kar sakti hain, lekin unke kuch trials fail bhi hue hain. Compounded GLP-1 drugs bhi market ko disturb kar rahe hain. Lilly ki pill convenient hai, par Novo Nordisk ko first-mover advantage aur brand name ka fayda mil raha hai. Aage dekhte hain kaun kaisa perform karta hai.