Whalesbook
Arey Bhai, Q4 mein kya hua?
Q4 FY26 mein company ka EBITDA ₹9.5 billion raha, jo market ke estimate se kam tha, aur margin 15% pe aa gaya. Net profit toh 54.6% toot kar ₹554.64 crore pe pahunch gaya, jabki revenue bhi 2.8% gir kar ₹6,541.20 crore ho gaya. Poore FY26 ke liye bhi net profit 26.7% gir kar ₹3,862 crore raha, aur EPS ₹65.29 se ₹48.03 ho gaya.
US Sales Ki Giraawat Ka Asar
Is sab ka main reason hai US market mein sales ka 26% girna (INR mein). Q4 mein US sales $155 million rahi, aur poore saal ki $780 million. Ye kyun hua? Qki US FDA ki wajah se Greece mein unke contract manufacturer ki Lanreotide ki production ruk gayi thi. Aur haan, generic Revlimid ka exclusivity bhi khatam ho gaya. Ab company US mein naya manufacturing site dhoondh rahi hai. FY27 ke liye 18.5% se 20% tak ka EBITDA margin target rakha hai, jisme Lanreotide recovery count nahi hai.
Valuation Aur Competition
Bhai, ab valuation ki baat karein toh Cipla ka stock apne peers jaise Natco Pharma (12.8x), Zydus Lifesciences (18.4x), aur Dr. Reddy's Laboratories (19.0x) ke comparison mein thoda mehenga lag raha hai. Cipla ka TTM P/E around 20.4x-23.7x hai, jabki India ki pharma market 34.55x pe trade kar rahi hai. Lekin growth outlook mein challenges hain. U.S. market mein bhi price erosion aur zabardast competition hai. Waise, India mein pharma market Q4 FY26 mein 10.5% grow hui, lekin US mein halat alag hain.
Aage Kya Challenges Hain?
Aage chal kar FY27 mein 18.5% se 20% ka EBITDA margin aur US mein $1 billion ki sales karna aasan nahi hoga. Company ko naye product launches par depend karna padega, jaise generic Ventolin inhaler. Lekin USFDA ki observations ki wajah se supply chain mein problems aa rahi hain, jisse launches delay ho sakte hain. Advair generic launch bhi Indore facility mein OAI ki wajah se late ho gaya hai. Upar se U.S. generics market mein price kam ho raha hai aur bade buyers consolidate kar rahe hain. gRevlimid aur Lanreotide jaise high-margin products ka loss bhi badi problem hai. Company ke paas ₹10,526 crore ki net cash hai, jo achha hai, par operational aur regulatory issues ko overcome karna hoga.
Analysts Kya Kehte Hain?
Analysts ka view bhi mila-jula hai. Kuch ₹1,400 ka target de rahe hain, toh kuch 'Neutral' ya 'Moderate Sell' keh rahe hain. Stock ka bada jump tabhi hoga jab company FY27 mein U.S. mein important respiratory aur complex generic products successfully launch kar payegi aur Lanreotide supply issues solve ho jayengi, jo shayad FY27 ke end ya FY28 mein ho.