Whalesbook
US Market Mein Badi Giraavat
Asal mein, US market mein company ki sales kaafi kam ho gayi hain. gRevlimid ke patent expiry ke baad usse revenue milna band ho gaya hai, jo ki ek bada loss hai. Lanreotide ki sales bhi supply issues ke karan gir gayi hain. Is wajah se overall revenue bhi thoda 0.9% kam hokar ₹6,665 crore rehne ka andaaza hai. Brokerages jaise Kotak Institutional Equities bol rahe hain ki US sales 19% kam ho kar $136 million ho sakti hain, aur Antique Stock Broking 21% giravat dekh raha hai, matlab $174 million.
Kharchon Ne Bhi Maar Diya Dimaag
Sirf sales hi nahi, company ke kharche bhi badh gaye hain. Isliye EBITDA expected hai ki 35% tak gir jaye, matlab ₹1,000 crore tak. Analysts ka kehna hai ki marketing par zyada kharcha ho raha hai, especially Naye GLP launches ke liye. Aur toh aur, global tensions ke karan freight costs bhi badh gaye hain. Is sabka asar EBITDA margin par bhi pada hai, jo 820 basis points kam hokar 14.6% ho sakta hai.
India Waali Sales Sambhal Rahi Hain
Par achi baat ye hai ki Cipla ka domestic market acha perform kar raha hai. India mein sales expected hai ki 12% tak grow karein, thanks to products like Yurpeak. Ye domestic performance thodi help kar rahi hai, par US market ki badi giravat ko poori tarah compensate karne ke liye kaafi nahi hai.
Analysts Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Analysts ke views alag alag hain. Average target price ₹1,431 ke aas paas hai. ICICI Securities ne toh stock ko 'Buy' kar diya hai aur target ₹1,550 diya hai, kyunki unko naye generics se fayda hone ki ummeed hai. Par Morgan Stanley abhi bhi 'Underweight' rating par hai, unko execution risks dikh rahe hain. Company ka P/E ratio ab 23-24x chal raha hai, jo ki pichhle teen saal ke average 27.4x se kam hai.
Execution Mein Challenges Bhi Hain
Company ko kuch challenges bhi face karni pad rahi hain. Jaise Brazil mein unke liraglutide generics ko technical reasons se reject kar diya gaya. Aur naye products ko bhi market mein tough competition milne wali hai.
Aage Ka Outlook?
Management se abhi earnings call mein updates ka wait hai ki US sales kab tak theek hongi aur India mein GLP launches kaise perform kar rahe hain. FY27 mein recovery ki ummeed hai, par FY26 mein earnings thodi kam hi rehne ka andaaza hai. FY27 mein EPS ₹50-₹52 ho sakta hai.