Whalesbook
AI ka craze aur tensions ka relief, Nasdaq mein dikhi dhamal!
Aajkal kaafi time se Nasdaq ekdum bhaga ja raha hai. Iss baar reason hai US aur Iran ke beech tensions kam hone ki hope aur inflation thanda padna. Log abhi se AI mein bhi full paisa laga rahe hain, Nvidia ke shares toh 2023 ke baad sabse zyada bhage hain. Sab kuch smooth lag raha hai, right?
Par bhai, oil ka chakkar kya hai?
Ek taraf market upar ja rahi hai, dusri taraf International Energy Agency (IEA) keh rahi hai ki oil prices abhi bhi future mein hone wale supply crisis ko reflect nahi kar rahe hain. IEA ke chief Fatih Birol ne bola hai ki Iran conflict ki wajah se roz 13 million barrels tak ka oil supply band ho gaya hai. Currently Brent crude $89 ke aas paas hai, par agar supply aur bhi kam hui toh yeh price sambhalna mushkil hai. Lagta hai market abhi iss risk ko nazarandaaz kar rahi hai.
AI valuations ka record break aur tariffs ka threat!
AI ki duniya mein bhi kamaal ho raha hai. Anthropic naam ki company IPO se pehle hi $800 billion se zyada valuation attract kar rahi hai, jo OpenAI se bhi zyada hai. Nvidia toh AI ke liye zaroori hardware banati hai, uske shares bhi mast chal rahe hain, although uska valuation forward P/E 45x hai, jo AMD (30x) aur Intel (25x) se kaafi zyada hai. Aur tension badhane ke liye, Donald Trump ne ishara kiya hai ki woh July tak US tariffs phir se laga sakte hain. Agar aisa hua toh inflation phir se badh sakta hai, jo market ke current 'soft landing' narrative ke bilkul opposite hoga. UN ne toh yeh bhi bataya hai ki Iran conflict ke chakkar mein fertilizer ki shortage ho rahi hai, jisse develop hone wale deshon ko dikkat ho rahi hai.
Bull Market mein Chhupe Dangers
Aisa lag raha hai ki market abhi thoda zyada hi optimistic hai. Geopolitical issues aur oil supply ki problems ko shayad kam aanka ja raha hai. Agar tensions badhe ya diplomacy fail hui toh oil prices ekdum bhadak sakte hain. AI mein jo itni badi valuations dikh rahi hain, woh ek speculative risk hai aur kabhi bhi crash ho sakti hain. Aur agar tariffs wapas aaye, toh trade wars shuru ho sakti hain aur inflation badh sakta hai, jisse central banks ki price control karne ki koshish fail ho jayegi. Vedanta ke power plant mein hui fatal accident bhi yaad dilata hai ki heavy industry aur energy sectors mein hamesha risks rehte hain, khaas kar jab supply chains tight hon.
Mixed Outlook par Risks abhi bhi hain
Aage dekhein toh AI aur semiconductor sectors mein toh growth ki kaafi ummeed hai, par valuations ka kya hoga aur kya yeh sustainable hai, yeh sawal hai. Energy market mein supply ko lekar turant pressure hai. Tariffs ka potential threat global growth aur inflation ke liye badi uncertainty hai. Investors filhaal tech growth ki taraf dekh rahe hain, par energy security aur trade policy ke risks ko shayad kam samajh rahe hain.