Whalesbook
Arre bhai, Petronet LNG (PLNG) ne FY26 ke teesre quarter mein waakai kamaal kar diya! Unka adjusted EBITDA ₹12.2 billion tak pahunch gaya, jo analyst expectations se 7% zyaada hai. Aur volumes? Woh bhi estimate se 3% upar, matlab 233 tbtu tak pahunch gaye. Dahej terminal toh 3% ahead chala, aur Kochi terminal bhi set tha. Operationally toh sab badhiya chal raha tha ekdum!
Par, ab aata hai asli twist jisse market soch mein pad gaya hai. Sabse badi chinta hai FY28 mein hone wala tariff cut. Motilal Oswal jaise experts ne ₹365 ka target price diya hai, lekin woh bhi maan kar chal rahe hain ki tariffs 10% tak gir sakti hain. Agar aisa hua toh future revenue par asar padega.
Aur woh jo naya petchem plant ban raha hai na, uski valuation bhi kaafi conservative rakhi gayi hai. Reports ke mutabik, yeh lagbhag 0.5 times FY29 P/B par hai. Isse lagta hai company ya toh future ko lekar bahut cautious hai, ya phir project execute karne mein kuch challenges aa sakti hain.
Dekho, Petronet LNG ek important energy infrastructure sector mein hai, aur government policies ka pressure toh rehta hi hai. GAIL India jaisi companies bhi lagbhag same valuation par hain, par unka dividend yield thoda better hai (3.1%). Energy sector mein abhi policy changes chal rahe hain, jisse tariffs par pressure ban sakta hai. Company ka market cap lagbhag ₹68,000 crore hai aur P/E 17.5x ke aas-paas hai.
Main risk toh wohi tariff cut hai. Agar 10% ka cut laga toh profit par seedha asar padega. Aur petchem plant se revenue diversify karne ki ummeed thi, par uski conservative valuation sawal utha rahi hai. Company ka core business imported LNG aur regasification par depend karta hai, toh international prices aur supply chain mein koi bhi gadbad inhe affect kar sakti hai.
Motilal Oswal ka outlook bhi kuch aisa hi hai - abhi ka performance achha hai, par future mein tariff cut aur project execution ke risks dikh rahe hain. Market abhi ₹258.50 ke aas-paas trade kar raha hai, jisse lagta hai investors bhi current results aur future uncertainties ko balance kar rahe hain. Aage dekhna hoga ki company regulatory changes ko kaise handle karti hai aur petchem plant ka kya hota hai.