Whalesbook
Oil Reserves mein Achanak Giraavat!
Dekho bhaiyo, May mein oil reserves itne tezi se gir rahe hain ki bura haal hai. Crude aur fuel stocks roz 8.7 million barrels se kam ho rahe hain. Ye Middle East mein conflict shuru hone ke baad se double speed hai! Strait of Hormuz mein jo ladai chal rahi hai, uski wajah se exports band hain, sirf 5% normal volume mein maal nikal raha hai. Isse physical oil market mein supply ki dikkat ho gayi hai. Brent crude futures toh saal ke start se ab tak 70% se zyada bhag chuka hai.
Global Demand bhiWeak, Supply ka Pressure Zyada
Ye jitna bhi inventory kam ho raha hai, uska bada reason hai kam hoti exports. May mein two-thirds decline exports mein kami ki wajah se hai. Ab ye Europe bhi affect ho raha hai, jahan jet fuel imports 60% kam hain 2025 ke average se. China, jo sabse bada crude importer hai, wo bhi oil nahi le raha. Refinery ki demand kam hai aur domestic fuel sales bhi 22% gir gayi hain. US mein bhi record giravat hui hai crude inventories mein, last week 17.8 million barrels kam hue hain. Cushing, Oklahoma jaise storage hubs bhi khatarnak level par pahunch rahe hain.
October tak Supply Shortage ka Risk?
IEA keh raha hai ki October tak oil supply mein kami reh sakti hai, chahe conflict jaldi khatam ho jaye. Fourth quarter 2026 tak market mein deficit rahega. Estimates ke mutabik, saal bhar mein global oil supply 3.9 million barrels per day kam rahegi. Wapas stocks refill karne ke liye next three years tak roz 1 million barrels surplus supply chahiye hogi. IEA ka kehna hai ki demand shayad badh jaye, par crude supply uske hisab se nahi badhegi, isliye prices mein volatility reh sakti hai, khaas kar summer mein.
Strategic Reserves aur OPEC+ ki Kami
Strategic reserves release karne se kuch time ke liye relief mila hai, par ye reserves unlimited nahi hain. US ki Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) mein record 9.9 million barrels ki weekly drawdown hui hai, aur total inventory bhi saal bhar mein kaafi kam hui hai. Iske baad bhi market mein deficit hai. OPEC+ ne May 2026 ke liye 206,000 barrels per day ka production increase announce kiya hai, par ye Strait of Hormuz se hone wale loss ko cover karne ke liye kafi nahi hai, jahan February se 12.8 million barrels per day supply kam hui hai. Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline aur UAE's Fujairah pipeline jaise alternative routes bhi utna maal nahi nikal sakte. Aur ye conflict jo teen mahine se chal raha hai, uski wajah se uncertainty hai ki kab ye shipping lane vapas khulegi.