Whalesbook
Yaar, abhi kuch din pehle tak toh crude oil prices kafi badh gaye the. Iran aur Strait of Hormuz ko lekar jo geopolitical tensions chal rahe the, uski wajah se prices $112.41 (WTI) aur $109.77 (Brent) tak pahunch gaye the. Lekin jaise hi US ne kaha ki woh Iran ke khilaaf temporary operations rok rahe hain, market ne turant reaction diya. April 8 ko Brent 13.25% gir kar $94.79 aur WTI 14.45% gir kar $96.17 aa gaya. Isse pata chalta hai ki market headlines par kitna react karta hai, investors ne turant apna mood badal liya.
Ab ye jo price ka khel chal raha hai na, iska India ki sarkari oil companies par alag alag asar ho raha hai. Jo refiners hain, jaise IOCL, HPCL, aur BPCL, unki toh maja aa jayegi. Jab crude oil sasta aata hai, toh unke refining margins badh jaate hain. Har $1 per barrel ki girawat par, in companies ka EBITDA ₹200 Cr se ₹300 Cr tak badh sakta hai. Inka P/E ratio bhi kaafi kam hai, IOCL ka lagbhag 5.53, HPCL ka 4.53, aur BPCL ka 5.54, matlab ye value stocks hain. Lekin doosri taraf, jo companies crude oil produce karti hain, jaise ONGC, unki kamai par side effect padega. Crude oil mein har $1 ki kami se ONGC ki saalana revenue ₹300 Cr se ₹400 Cr tak kam ho sakti hai. ONGC ka P/E ratio lagbhag 9.53 hai aur market cap ~₹3.61 trillion hai. Stock toh resilient raha hai, par revenue ka impact toh hoga hi.
Par bhai, ye sab relief temporary bhi ho sakta hai. Geopolitical situation abhi bhi tense hai, aur Strait of Hormuz khulega ya nahi, ye diplomacy par depend karta hai. Agar phir se conflict hua toh prices phir se bhadak sakte hain. Pichhle mahine March mein toh UBS ne IOCL, HPCL, BPCL ko crude oil prices badhne ki wajah se downgrade bhi kiya tha. Iske alawa, companies ko long term mein energy transition se bhi deal karna hai, jahan renewables zada profitable hain. Companies debt bhi bahut utha rahi hain investment ke liye. ONGC ke Daman Upside project jaise naye projects par bhi funding ka pressure aa sakta hai. Aur haan, April 3 ko ONGC ke ek platform par aag lagi thi, jo control ho gayi, par aise operational risks toh rehte hi hain.