Whalesbook
Dekho, yeh oil prices ka jo bhaagna hai na, yeh koi demand badhne se nahi hai, balki supply mein disturbance ki dar se hai. Matlab, traders ko future supply se zyada abhi available barrels ki chinta hai. Ismein upar se energy infrastructure ko damage hone ki wajah se situation aur bhi kharaab ho gayi hai. Market abhi actual shortage se zyada shortage ke dar se chal raha hai.
Geopolitical Tensions Badh Gayin
Ab baat karte hain tensions ki. Aaj yaani Monday, April 6, 2026 ko, crude oil prices tabhi badhne lagi jab geopolitical tensions badh gayin. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures 2.6% badh kar $115 per barrel ho gaye, aur Brent crude 2% se zyada badh kar $111 ke paar pahunch gaya. Yeh sab US President Donald Trump ke Iran ko le kar diye gaye warnings ke baad hua, khaas kar Strait of Hormuz mein unke actions ko le kar. Yeh Strait toh duniya ke 20% oil transit ka rasta hai, aur wahan kuch gadbad chal rahi hai. Analysts ka kehna hai ki March mein hi $14 per barrel ka risk premium issi wajah se add ho gaya tha.
Infrastructure Damage Ne Badhai Fikar
Iske alawa, pichle weekend mein kuch energy infrastructure par bhi attack hue hain. Kuwait Petroleum Corp. ka headquarters drone attack se hit hua, aur kahin aur bhi power plants damage hue hain. Isse supply ki stability par aur sawaal uth gaye hain. Bhale hi diplomatic tensions kam ho jayein, par damaged facilities ko theek karne mein time aur paisa lagne wala hai, jisse supply kam reh sakti hai.
OPEC+ Ka Output Hike Bhi Kam Pad Raha Hai
Abhi OPEC+ ne weekend meeting mein kaha hai ki woh output badhayenge – May ke liye 206 kb/d increase ki baat hai. Lekin, jaise maine bataya, yeh jo conflict aur infrastructure damage ho raha hai, uski wajah se actual exports kam ho sakti hain. Toh OPEC+ ki yeh koshish bhi abhi kam padti dikh rahi hai, kyunki sabko immediate supply ki fikar hai, na ki future mein hone wale production increase ki.
Iraq Ki Exemption Aur Market Ki Savdhaani
Iran ne Iraq ko Strait of Hormuz mein shipping restrictions se exempt kiya hai, par Iraq abhi bhi savdhaan hai aur companies par decision chhod diya hai. Market mein overall caution hai. Jab tak tensions kam nahi hoti aur rasta saaf nahi hota, tab tak yeh risk premium bana rahega. Yeh bhi dhyan rakho ki agar prices aise hi badhti rahi toh inflation badhegi, jisse sabke kharchon par asar padega.
Kuch Aur Factors Bhi Hain
Kuch log keh rahe hain ki shayad market zyaada hi reaction de raha hai. Duniya mein abhi bhi 8.2 billion barrels ka oil stock hai. Strait of Hormuz important hai, par dusre raste aur consuming nations ke paas jo strategic reserves hain, woh bhi badi shock ko handle kar sakte hain. OPEC+ ka increase dikhata hai ki woh manage karna chahte hain. Par infrastructure damage ka risk toh hai. Agar tensions kam hue toh prices turant gir bhi sakte hain, jaisa pehle dekha gaya hai. Iske opposite, natural gas prices kam ho gayi hain.
Aage Ka Outlook
Aage chal kar, analysts ko lagta hai ki oil prices April mein $100 per barrel se upar reh sakti hain, par saal ke end tak yeh $70 tak aa sakti hain, woh bhi is baat par depend karta hai ki tensions kaise resolve hoti hain aur supply routes saaf hoti hain ya nahi.