Whalesbook
Toh bhai, ONGC ke liye kya ho raha hai?
Government ne na, gas wells ke liye ek policy change ki hai, jismein naye wells par 20% ka premium mil raha hai Average Price Mechanism (APM) ke hisaab se. Ye August 2024 se start ho jayega. Iska matlab ONGC ko naye gas wells se zyada paisa milega. Unki output ka 18% ab aise hi priced hoga aur oil price ka 12% milega, koi cap nahi. Analyst log bhi khush hain, unhone oil price forecast $85/bbl FY27 ke liye aur $75/bbl FY28 ke liye kar diya hai. Isse ONGC ka standalone EBITDA 40% FY27 mein aur 21% FY28 mein badhne ka chance hai. Kotak Securities ne apna valuation multiple bhi 7x kar diya hai, pehle 6.5x tha. Matlab, ONGC sector mein top pick ban gaya hai. Stock abhi support level ke paas hai, toh agar projections sahi nikle toh acha upside dikh sakta hai.
Ab aate hain solar waali company, Emmvee Photovoltaic Power par.
Inko bhi 'ADD' rating mili hai aur fair value hai ₹250. Ye log apna integrated solar cell aur module manufacturing full power mein badha rahe hain. FY27 tak India ki fourth largest cell maker banne ka plan hai. Abhi module capacity 16.3 GW aur cell capacity 8.9 GW target hai. Sabse mast baat ye hai ki ye log TOPCon technology wale cell facility bana rahe hain (2.9 GW). Yeh tech current mein sabse advanced hai aur Emmvee ko competitors se aage rakhegi jo abhi bhi old Mono PERC technology use kar rahe hain. India mein June 2028 se ALMM List III requirements bhi aa rahi hain, toh ye tech advantage kaam aayega. Order book bhi zabardast hai, ₹14,650 crore ka (jo 9.3 GW hai), matlab lagbhag 2 saal ki revenue visibility pakki. Is integrated model se margins bhi better mil rahe hain.
Dekho, ONGC ka focus hydrocarbon extraction par hai, jabki Emmvee ka renewable energy par. Industry alag hai, lekin dono apne apne sector mein growth dikha rahe hain. ONGC ka valuation oil prices par depend karta hai, jabki Emmvee ka technology aur integration par. Emmvee ka order book 3.3x TTM sales ka hai, jo competitors se better hai.
Risks ki baat karein toh ONGC ke liye gas premium kam hone ya oil prices girne ka dar hai. Agar interest rates badhti hain ya production mein gadbad hui toh debt bhi problem kar sakta hai. Emmvee ke liye competition aur tech change tezi se ho raha hai. IPO se fund raise karna hai aur agar kam hua toh projects late ho sakte hain. Solar market mein price swings bhi risk hai.
Future projections ke hisab se, Emmvee ka module volume 20% annual growth aur cell volume 30% annual growth FY35 tak expect hai. Net profit 44% saalana grow kar sakta hai FY25-30 ke beech. ONGC ka future oil prices aur government support par depend karega. Overall, analysts dono ke liye cautiously optimistic hain, bas execution aur market conditions par nazar rakhni hogi.