ONGC Stock Girega Kafi Zyada Brokerage Ne Diya SHOCKING Sell Call: Production Ki Pareshaniyan Aur Bhari Karz Ka Khulasa!

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AuthorKavya Nair|Published at:
ONGC Stock Girega Kafi Zyada Brokerage Ne Diya SHOCKING Sell Call: Production Ki Pareshaniyan Aur Bhari Karz Ka Khulasa!
Overview

Axis Capital ne ONGC par 'sell' rating aur ₹205 price target ke saath coverage shuru ki hai, jo 14% ki giravat ka andaza laga raha hai. Ye downgrade purane fields se gharelu production mein kami, FY27 tak PAT mein 20% tak ki kami laane wale muted tel price outlook, aur subsidiaries ONGC Videsh aur ONGC Petro additions mein high debt levels ki concerns se aa rahi hai. Report ke baad, ONGC shares mein 3% se zyada ki giravat aayi.

Brokerage firm Axis Capital dwara 'sell' recommendation ke saath coverage shuru karne ke baad, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) ke shares ne somvaar ko 3% se zyada ki badi giravat dekhi. Brokerage ne ₹205 per share ka price target set kiya hai, jo iske haal hi mein trading levels se 14% ki potential downside ko darshata hai. Is downgrade ne sarkari tel company ke liye investor sentiment ko affect kiya hai.

Axis Capital ne ONGC ki domestic oil aur gas production ko lekar chinta vyakt ki hai, jo ki purane fields par bahut zyada nirbhar hai. Ye fields saalana lagbhag 7% se 7.5% ki natural decline rate ka saamna kar rahe hain. Company ke lagbhag 63% oil aur 74% natural gas output (FY2025 mein) Mumbai offshore region se aata hai, jo 50 saal pehle discover hua tha.

Mumbai High field ke liye technical services provider ke roop mein BP ke saath ONGC ka collaboration ummeed jaga raha hai, lekin Axis Capital ka anuman hai ki standalone production mein giravat jaari rahegi. Brokerage FY2025 aur FY2030 ke beech oil ke liye 1.3% aur natural gas ke liye 0.4% ki compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) decline predict karta hai.

Brokerage anticipate karta hai ki badhti global supply aur kam hoti demand ke karan crude oil prices par sustained pressure rahega. International Energy Agency (IEA) ka anuman hai ki 2025 aur 2026 mein non-OPEC aur OPEC+ production ke expansion ki wajah se global oil supply mein mahatvapurn vriddhi hogi. Saath hi, global demand growth bhi subdued rehne ki ummeed hai.

Is outlook ke aadhar par, Axis Capital ne FY2026 ke liye Brent crude prices $66 per barrel aur FY2027 ke liye $65 per barrel model kiya hai. Iska parinaam yeh hoga ki, company ka standalone profit after tax (PAT) FY2025 aur FY2027 ke beech 20% tak gir sakta hai. Crude oil prices mein badi vriddhi hi stock ke liye primary upside risk hai, Axis Capital ke mutabik.

ONGC ki key subsidiaries, ONGC Videsh (OVL) aur ONGC Petro additions Ltd. (OPaL) mein significant leverage ko lekar aur chinta uthai gayi hai. Axis Capital FY26 ke liye OVL ka net debt ₹31,100 crore (jo iske EBITDA ka 10 guna hai) aur OPaL ka ₹25,200 crore (jo iske EBITDA ka 53 guna hai) estimate karta hai.

OPaL ki financial situation khaas taur par precarious hai, jahan cash flows iske interest payments ko bhi cover karne ke liye kafi nahi hain. Is high leverage ke karan, Axis Capital OVL ke liye ₹16,200 crore (ya ₹13 per share) aur OPaL ke liye ₹18,900 crore (ya ₹15 per share) ke negative equity value ko project karta hai. Brokerage ka manna hai ki ONGC ko in subsidiaries ke debt obligations ko manage karne ke liye aane wale saalon mein significant equity inject karni padegi.

Downgrade ke response mein, ONGC shares ne somvaar ko ₹229.94 ka intraday low touch kiya, isse pehle ₹232.25 ke aas-paas trade kar rahe the. Pichle mahine stock mein pehle hi 6.4% ki giravat aa chuki hai. Axis Capital ke bearish stance ke bawajood, broader analyst consensus positive bana hua hai, jahan 31 mein se 19 analysts is stock ko 'buy' karne ki salah de rahe hain, jabki chah (six) 'hold' aur chah (six) 'sell' karne ko keh rahe hain.

Ye downgrade ek prominent brokerage se ONGC ke liye potential headwinds ko highlight karta hai, jismein mature fields mein operational challenges aur oil prices ko affect karne wale macroeconomic factors shamil hain. Investors company ki subsidiaries ke debt ko manage karne aur production levels ko sustain karne ki ability ko closely monitor karenge. Stock ka performance crude oil price movements aur subsidiaries ko lekar kisi bhi strategic decisions ke prati sensitive rahega.

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