Whalesbook
Rating Downgrade ka Scene Kya Hai?
Dekho, Prabhudas Lilladher ne jo ONGC ka rating pehle 'Buy' diya tha, ab usko 'Accumulate' pe le aaye hain. Iska matlab hai ki woh ab stock ko thoda hold karne ki salah de rahe hain, kharidne se zyada. Unki sabse badi chinta yeh hai ki company apna volume growth bana paayegi ya nahi. Haalanki, YoY basis par oil sales mein 1.3% aur gas mein 1.1% ka slight increase dikha hai, lekin sequential basis pe oil volume 1.8% gir gaya. Aur oil realization bhi $72.6 se kam hokar sirf $61.6 per barrel ho gaya hai. Isse company ki earning par pressure aa raha hai.
Revenue Aur Profit Par Asar?
Kam oil prices aur volume fluctuations ka asar sidha results mein dikh raha hai. Company ka revenue sequential basis par 4.5% aur YoY basis par 6.4% gir kar ₹315.5 billion ho gaya. EBITDA bhi sequential 2.1% aur YoY 8.7% gir kar ₹173.2 billion pe pahunch gaya. Net Profit (PAT) YoY mein 1.6% badha hai ₹83.7 billion tak, lekin yeh sirf tax kam hone ki wajah se hua hai, asli mein sequential basis par profit 15.0% gir gaya hai. Ye sab India ke oil and gas sector ke overall 5% CAGR growth ke opposite hai.
Production Goals Aur Future?
ONGC ka plan hai ki FY27 tak unka standalone oil production 21.0 million metric tons aur gas production 21.5 billion cubic meters hoga. Lekin Prabhudas Lilladher ko lagta hai ki yeh numbers thoda kam rahenge, aur FY25 se FY28 ke beech oil production ka CAGR sirf 1.7% aur gas ka 2.6% rahega (joint ventures ko mila kar). Aur global Brent crude oil prices bhi 2026 mein $58 aur 2027 mein $53 per barrel tak girne ka forecast hai, jo ki inke realizations par aur dabav dalega.
Kya ONGC Mehengai Ke Liye Sasta Hai?
ONGC India ke upstream sector mein ek bada player hai, especially Mumbai High jaisi jagah pe. Lekin inka current P/E ratio 9.15-9.24 hai, jo Reliance Industries ke P/E (23-24) se kaafi kam hai. Yeh lag sakta hai ki ONGC sasta mil raha hai, par problem yeh hai ki production badhana tough hai aur commodity prices ka volatile rehna bhi ek issue hai. Operating expenditure, depreciation aur exploration costs bhi badh rahe hain. India abhi bhi 90% crude import karta hai, aur government ka 18% GST exploration par ek aur risk hai. Global oil prices kam hone se India ko fayda hoga, par ONGC ke revenue ke liye yeh negative hai.
Analysts Kya Keh Rahe Hain?
Prabhudas Lilladher ne ONGC ke liye target price ₹297 rakha hai, jo unke December 2027 estimated earnings ka 9 times hai. Analyst sentiments mix hain. Kuch jaise HDFC Sky 'Reduce' rating ke saath ₹220 ka target de rahe hain, toh wahi Kotak aur CLSA 'Buy' rating ke saath ₹285 aur ₹320 ke targets de rahe hain. Overall 30 analysts mein se zyada 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur average target ₹278-280 ke aas paas hai. Lekin targets ki range ₹200 se ₹350 tak hai, jo ONGC ke future volume growth aur realization ko lekar uncertainty dikhata hai.