Whalesbook
Kya hua valuations ke saath?
Dekho, ab market sirf crude prices nahi dekh raha, company kaise kaam kar rahi hai us par zyada dhyan de raha hai. Revenue toh ₹359.3 billion tak pahunch gaya, lekin net profit sirf 3% badha hai, jo analysts ki ummeed se kaafi kam hai. Isliye stock itna gira hai, because global energy prices toh high hain, par ONGC apna production nahi badha pa raha.
Production mein attack
Asli problem hai ki India mein oil aur gas ka output last kuch saalon se badha hi nahi hai. Company ne record drilling program start kiya hai, 500 se zyada wells khodne ka target hai, par KG-DWN-98/2 jaise important deepwater projects mein technical issues aur infrastructure ki delays aa rahi hain. Purani fields mein bhi problem hai, jiske wajah se output targets baar-baar kam karne pad rahe hain. Lagta nahi hai ki jaldi production badhega.
Investors ki tension
Baaki companies ke muqable ONGC ke assets purane ho gaye hain, jismein bahut zyada risk wala paisa lagana pad raha hai. Exploration ka kharcha bhi badh raha hai aur bahut si wells se kuch nikal nahi raha. Gas pe focus karne ka plan bhi regulatory aur pricing ke issues se affected ho sakta hai. Bade investors ab ₹33,000 crore ke offshore capex cycle ke execution risk ko bhi dekh rahe hain. Agar FY28 tak output target achieve nahi hua toh stock aur gir sakta hai.
Aage kya?
Haan, yeh sach hai ki ONGC India ki energy security ke liye important hai. Royalty rates mein changes se cash flow ko support mil sakta hai. Kuch analysts dividend yield aur offshore projects ke potential ko dekh kar positive hain, par jab tak production consistently badhta hua nahi dikhega, stock toh oil prices aur government policies ke upar hi depend karega.