Whalesbook
Peeche toh dekho, OMCs ka loss itna badh gaya hai ki unki jeene ki wajah hi mushkil ho gayi hai. Domestic ATF bechne mein company ko lagbhag ₹64 per litre ka nuksaan ho raha hai, jo barrel ke hisaab se $109 banta hai. Yeh chota mota nuksaan nahi hai, companies ke liye toh yeh saal ka hazaron crore ka total loss hai. Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) ko lagbhag ₹23,600 Crore, Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL) ko ₹9,500 Crore, aur Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) ko ₹5,300 Crore ka nuksaan ho raha hai. Aur toh aur, domestic LPG cylinders par bhi ab ₹380 ka nuksaan ho raha hai, jiski wajah se government par subsidy ka bojh badh raha hai. Investors bhi kaafi chintit hain, isliye toh pichhle mahine HPCL ke shares 21%, IOCL ke 24%, aur BPCL ke 25% gir gaye, jo BSE Sensex ke 8.8% girne se kaafi zyada hai. Saath hi, crude oil price $106.7 per barrel ke aas paas hai aur rupee bhi kamzor hai, jo nuksaan ko aur badha raha hai. Kahaani mein abhi aur hai...
Yeh LPG par badhta nuksaan sarkaar ke budget ke liye bhi badi headache ban gaya hai. Har cylinder par ₹380 ka nuksaan matlab paise ki barbaadi. ICRA ka kehna hai ki FY2027 tak yeh shortfall ₹200 billion tak pahunch sakti hai, jo government ke kharchon par aur pressure daalega.
Ab baat karte hain City Gas Distributors (CGDs) ki, toh unka future alag alag hai. Government ne APM gas ka rate $7 per mmbtu aur NWG ka $12.91 per mmbtu kar diya hai, jo kaafi complicated hai. Mahanagar Gas (MGL) toh bach gaya hai kyuki woh Henry Hub linked sasta gas use karta hai, isliye price ka zyada impact nahi hota. Lekin Indraprastha Gas (IGL) aur Gujarat Gas mushkil mein hain kyuki woh Brent crude linked gas use karte hain aur costly spot LNG par bhi depend karte hain. Isi wajah se MGL aur Gujarat Gas ke shares 22% tak aur IGL ke 11% gir gaye hain pichhle mahine.
Achhi khabar yeh hai ki Petronet LNG ne Dahej terminal mein 5 million tonne per year ki expansion poori kar li hai, jisse total capacity 22.5 mtpa ho gayi hai. Aur company ke shares 5.2% bhi badhe the. Aur Reliance Industries (RIL) toh lottery jeet gaya! Unki SEZ refinery ko windfall tax se exemption mil gayi hai, matlab unke export-focused refinery operations par koi naya tax nahi lagega. Yeh unko baaki companies se ek step aage rakhta hai.
Seedhi baat yeh hai ki OMCs ko nuksaan sirf price hike se nahi rukega, jab tak government unki import cost ko consumers par paas nahi karne deti, especially domestic LPG ke liye. Kaha ja raha hai ki upstream companies jaise ONGC aur Oil India toh achha perform kar rahi hain, par yeh downstream players (OMCs) ko price swings aur subsidies se risk hai.