Whalesbook
Ab dekho, ye profit toh badha hai, par asal picture thodi alag hai. Company ka EBITDA, jo operational profitability ka main indicator hai, woh actually 0.7% gir kar ₹1,196 Crore ho gaya hai. Aur margins ka toh bura haal hai, jo pehle 51.3% the, woh ab bas 42.5% reh gaye hain. Iska matlab, operating costs badh gayin ya revenue kam margin waale segments se aa raha hai.
Company ne FY26 ke liye ₹0.21 per share ka final dividend bhi recommend kiya hai, jiske liye shareholders ki approval chahiye. Iske alawa, ₹1.40 ka interim dividend toh already de chuke hain. Governance ki taraf se dekhein toh Ministry of Power ne Diwakar Nath Misra ko board par Government Nominee Director banaya hai. Ye 2000-batch ke IAS officer hain aur Ministry mein Additional Secretary (Hydro) hain, toh experience kaafi hai.
Ab stock performance ki baat karein toh pichhle saal NHPC ka share performance theek-thak nahi raha hai. Company ka market cap abhi ₹77,628 Crore ke aas-paas hai aur trailing P/E ratio 24.7x hai. Compare karein toh Power Grid Corporation of India ka profit 9.7% badha hai, par unka revenue gira hai aur margins 77.7% hain. Wahi, NTPC, India ki sabse badi power producer, se bhi strong results ki umeed hai.
Analyst log bhi thode confused hain – kuch log ise 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur upside target kar rahe hain, toh kuch ka group ise 'Strong Sell' rating de raha hai. Historical performance ki baat karein toh stock apne 52-week high ₹118 se lagbhag 24% gir kar ₹85 ke aas-paas trade ho raha tha. Is underperformance ke reasons mein FIIs ka selling pressure (US tariff announcements ke baad), project commissioning mein delays, aur PSU power sector mein general correction bhi hain.
Sabse badi chinta NHPC ke liye yahi margin kamzor hone ki hai. Yeh 51.3% se 42.5% tak ka sharp drop, revenue badhne ke bawajood, kuch structural issue sign kar raha hai like operational expenses. Board mein naya appointment governance ke liye positive hai, par government ka zyada involvement future strategy aur project approvals par influence kar sakta hai.
Aage ka outlook dekhein toh NHPC ke paas Subansiri Lower Hydroelectric Project jaise projects hain jo future capacity growth ko drive karenge. Investors ko management se future capital expenditure, project timelines, aur tariff structures par clear guidance chahiye jab naya capacity online aata hai. Rising operational costs ko manage karna aur project pipeline ko capitalize karna NHPC ke stock ke liye crucial hoga, especially jab sector mein dynamics change ho rahe hain aur investor sentiment mixed hai.