Whalesbook
Motilal Oswal Financial Services ko Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL) mein kaafi potential dikh raha hai. Unhone 'Buy' rating pakki rakhi hai aur target price ₹220 set kiya hai, jo current levels se 40% zyada hai. Yeh sab tab hai jab gas kharidne ka cost 25% badh gaya hai, LNG prices mein global issues ki wajah se.
Q4 mein zabardast performance, cost pressure ke bawajud
IGL ne January-March quarter mein umeed se badhkar kaam kiya hai. EBITDA per SCM ₹4.8 raha, jo Motilal Oswal ke estimate se 44% zyada hai. Profit after tax (PAT) bhi ₹280 crore raha, jo expectations se behtar hai.
Total gas volumes mein 6% ka year-on-year growth dekha gaya, jo 9.7 MMSCMD tak pahunch gaya, Motilal Oswal ke 9.3 MMSCMD ke forecast se zyada. CNG volumes 5.5% badhe, aur PNG volumes domestic, industrial, aur commercial use ke liye estimates se 19% aur 7% zyada nikle.
Future Growth ke main reasons
Motilal Oswal ko lagta hai ki aane wale do saalon mein earnings badhti rahegi. Iska reason CNG volumes ka badhna aur PNG ka zyada use hona hai. IGL management ka target hai ki FY27 mein CNG volumes 10% se 13% tak badhe, aur EBITDA margins ₹7 se ₹8 per SCM ke beech rahenge.
Government ka PNG Drive 2.0 bhi ek bada catalyst hai. IGL FY27 mein 3.5 lakh naye domestic PNG connections jodna chahti hai aur lagbhag 5 lakh inactive customers ko convert karne ka plan hai, jismein zyada infrastructure ki zarurat nahi padegi.
Challenges aur Valuation outlook
Motilal Oswal kuch challenges bhi maan rahe hain, jaise gas sourcing costs mein 25% ka rise aur Delhi mein volume growth ka slow hona, jahan sirf 1% ka year-on-year increase hua. Delhi mein public transport fleets ke liye CNG conversion ka saturation aur app-based transport services ka CNG consumption par impact bhi note kiya gaya hai.
Iske bawajud, IGL ka valuation attractive lag raha hai. Stock apne one-year forward price-to-earnings ratio ke 18.3 times par trade kar raha hai, jo historical average ke aas-paas hai. Motilal Oswal ka forecast hai ki volume mein 8% CAGR aur EBITDA aur PAT mein 18% CAGR FY26 se FY28 tak rahega. ₹220 ka target price December 2027 ke estimated standalone earnings ke 15x multiple par based hai, plus joint ventures ke liye ₹43 per share.