Whalesbook
India ki sabse badi city gas distributor, Indraprastha Gas Limited (IGL), ne Q4 FY26 (March tak) ke liye apna net profit report kiya jo pichhle saal ke comparison mein 21% kam hai, yani ₹277.08 crore. Ye girawat ka main reason input gas ki badhti hui costs aur West Asia region ki supply chain mein problems batai ja rahi hain.
Volume Growth toh ho raha hai!
Magar, company ne quarterly sales volume mein 6% ka izafa dekha hai, jo ab 9.69 million standard cubic metres per day tak pahunch gaya hai. Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) ka volume 5% aur Piped Natural Gas (PNG) ka volume 6% badha hai saal-dar-saal. Total revenue from operations bhi 6% badhkar ₹4,571.49 crore ho gaya.
Brokerages ka alag-alag view
Result aane ke baad, alag-alag brokerage firms ne IGL ke future ko lekar mix signals diye hain:
- Morgan Stanley ne 'Equal-weight' rating rakhi hai aur target price ₹205 diya hai.
- Nuvama ne 'Reduce' rating maintain ki hai, lekin target price ₹173 se kam karke ₹148 kar diya hai. Unhe policy ko lekar uncertainty aur risk-reward balance pasand nahi aa raha.
- Wahi, Motilal Oswal ne 'Buy' recommendation ko fir se kaha hai aur target price ₹177 se badha kar ₹220 kar diya hai. Unhe valuation attractive lag rahe hain aur FY26 se FY28 tak 18% earnings per share growth ki ummeed hai.
- Emkay ne 'Add' rating di hai par target price ₹190 se 5% kam karke ₹180 kar diya hai. Unke EBITDA estimates miss hue aur finance costs zyada lage, jis se FY27 earnings per share forecast 12% kam ho gaya.
Margin Pressure aur Future?
EBITDA margins ₹4.8 per standard cubic meter (scm) rahe, jo mid-cycle average se kam hain. IGL ne gas par ₹3/scm ka price increase bhi kiya hai. Kuch analysts jaise Morgan Stanley, fuel retailers ko gas companies se zyada prefer kar rahe hain kyunki market expansion slow hai. Nuvama ka kehna hai ki IGL ka EBITDA consensus se 5% zyada raha, par woh sustainable margin guidance aur policy shifts ke karan sector multiples ko lekar cautious hain. Motilal Oswal ko FY27/28 mein ₹4.3/₹6.5 per scm ke EBITDA margins aur FY26 se FY28 tak 8% CAGR se volume growth ki ummeed hai.