Whalesbook
Ab asli maajra kya hai, chalo Emkay Global ki report se samjhte hain.
Sabse pehle toh, Emkay Global ne Brent crude oil ke liye apna FY27 ka forecast $86 per barrel kar diya hai, jo pehle $70 tha. West Asia mein chal rahe tensions ko dekh kar ye badlav aaya hai. March mein spot prices $104/barrel thi, aur April mein toh $124 tak pahunch gayi thi! Prices $99 se $145 ke beech mein fluctuate ho rahi hain.
Is high crude price ka asar seedha fuel marketing margins par pad raha hai. Jo retail prices hain na, woh input cost ke hisaab se slow change hoti hain, toh companies ka profit margin tight ho raha hai. Aur upar se government ke windfall taxes bhi aa gaye hain, jo diesel aur aviation fuel par profit limit kar rahe hain. Emkay ka estimate hai ki ye taxes lagbhag $20 per barrel tak aa sakte hain. Aisa lag raha hai ki April 11 se toh net crack margins negative mein chal rahe hain, $20-30 per barrel tak.
Ye sab milkar companies ke earnings par bohot bada dhakka de rahe hain. Emkay ka estimate hai ki FY27 ke pehle quarter mein hi IOCL, BPCL, aur HPCL ko milakar ₹37,000-38,000 Crore ka loss ho sakta hai, kyunki LPG ki under-recoveries bhi continue hain. Poore FY27 ke liye, EBITDA bhi IOCL aur BPCL ka 40% tak aur HPCL ka 60% tak gir sakta hai.
Is outlook ko dekh kar hi brokerage ne rating ko 'Buy' se 'Add' kar diya hai aur target prices bhi 20-25% tak kam kar diye hain. IOCL ka naya target ₹160, BPCL ka ₹350, aur HPCL ka ₹410 set kiya gaya hai. Agar crude oil prices $90 per barrel se neeche aa jaati hain Q2 se, toh figures improve ho sakte hain, par abhi toh geopolitical situation ke chalte risk dikh raha hai.