Whalesbook
Mausam ka Khel aur Badhti Maang
Yaar, 2026 ki shuruat mein, January mein bijli ki maang 143 billion units (BU) tak pahunch gayi thi, aur peak demand 245.4 gigawatts (GW) ko paar kar gayi. Yeh January 2022 se lagbhag 28% zyada hai maang mein aur 27% zyada peak load mein! February bhi peeche nahi raha, wahan bhi 133 BU aur 244 GW ki maang thi, jo pichhle paanch saal mein February ke liye sabse zyada hai. Socho, yeh toh garmi ke peak se bhi upar hai!
Iska reason kya hai? Ek taraf toh thand mein heater chalane se, doosri taraf bina mausam ki garmi mein AC chalaane se demand badh rahi hai. Matlab, mausam jab chahe tab demand ko yahan se wahan kar raha hai.
Economy bhi speed mein hai
Sirf mausam hi nahi, desh ki economy bhi zoron par hai. Industries mein kaam badha hai, jo power ka 40-50% use karte hain. Gharon mein bhi bijli connect ho rahi hai aur log zyada appliances khareed rahe hain. Sab milakar power ki maang lagatar badh rahi hai.
Grid ka stress
Ab jab demand itni unpredictable ho gayi hai, toh grid ko manage karna mushkil ho raha hai. India apni power generation capacity badha raha hai, khaas kar solar aur wind se, lekin grid itne sharp peaks ko handle kar paayega ya nahi, yeh ek badi chinta hai. Agle kuch saalon mein maang 10-12% saalana badhne ka andaaza hai, matlab infrastructure mein heavy investment chahiye warna power shortage ho sakti hai.
Weather ka alag hi scene hai
India Meteorological Department (IMD) bhi keh raha hai ki 2026 ka winter kaafi unusual raha. February mein pehli baar paanch saal mein cold wave nahi thi, par January mein thand thi aur February mein garmi. Yeh unpredictable weather pattern demand mein bhi fluctuations la raha hai. Central Electricity Authority (CEA) ka data bhi yahi bata raha hai ki peak load ab aksar garmi ke highest points ko match kar raha hai, woh bhi doosre seasons mein.
Kya ho sakta hai risk?
Is unpredictable demand se kaafi risks hain. Ek toh load badhta hai, doosra transmission aur distribution lines par strain padta hai, jisse kahin-kahin power cut ka khatra hai. ICRA ke analysts ka kehna hai ki grid ko upgrade karne aur forecasting ko behtar banane ke liye DISCOMs ko bahut paisa lagana padega, jiska asar unke finances par pad sakta hai. Usme se alag se renewables ka unpredictable supply, toh aur mushkil.
Future ki taiyari
Abhi toh yeh trend dikh raha hai, long-term data aayega tab pata chalega ki yeh El Niño jaisi cheezon ka asar hai ya kuch aur. Lekin ab power system ko saal bhar high demand ke liye ready rehna hoga. Iske liye flexible power generation, strong grid aur advanced demand management systems mein invest karna hoga. Power planners ab aise grid par focus kar rahe hain jo saal mein alag-alag time par aanewale peaks ko handle kar sake.