Whalesbook
Policy Ka Promise Aur Haqiqat
Asal mein, ye HELP policy bani thi purani NELP ko replace karne ke liye, taaki desh mein hi zyada oil gas mile. Revenue sharing aur open acreage jaise naye tareeke laye gaye. Lekin, hua kya? 172 blocks allocate kiye gaye, jisme $4.36 billion se zyada ka investment ka promise mila. Lekin, asliyat mein nikal kar aaye sirf 14 discoveries, aur unme se bhi sirf Gujarat ka ek chota sa field chal raha hai. Socho, desh mein 22 billion barrels reserves hain jo explore nahi hue, aur hum abhi bhi 90% oil bahar se mangwa rahe hain. Sahi mein, policy apne goal se bahut door hai.
High Risk, High Cost Ne Ki Sabki Band Bajaa
Iska ek bada reason hai ki jo blocks diye gaye hain, woh mostly deepwater aur ultra-deepwater area mein hain. Yeh areas explore karne mein bahut mehange, technically tough aur high-risk hote hain. Upar se, purane Production Sharing Contract (PSC) model se revenue sharing model par shift hone se companies ka risk aur badh gaya hai. Foreign players yahan ab serious investment karne se katra rahe hain. Last 2017 se koi bada international oil company naya exploration project sign nahi kiya hai. Indian offshore projects ka operational cost bhi $15-20 per barrel hai, jo neighboring countries se kaafi zyada hai. Is sabke karan confidence kam ho gaya hai.
Sirf Sarkari Companies Chal Rahi Hain
Is poore sector mein abhi bhi sarkari companies hi raj kar rahi hain, jaise ONGC aur Oil India. ONGC akela hi desh ka 71% oil aur 84% gas produce karta hai. ONGC ne apna $20 billion ka deepwater drilling program shuru kiya hai, par private aur foreign investment ka yahan kami hai. Reliance Industries bhi ab is exploration mein zyada active nahi hai. Ek aur dikkat ye hai ki Directorate General of Hydrocarbons (DGH) mein jo log hain, woh kabhi kabhi unhi companies se deputation par aate hain jinke projects wo oversee karte hain, toh conflict of interest ka bhi chance hai.
Bade Challenges Aur Risks Ab Bhi Hain
Main challenge toh yehi hai ki exploration ho rahi hai par actual production badh nahi raha. India mein deepwater exploration ke natural geological challenges aur badhte costs bhi bade hurdles hain. Revenue sharing model mein operator par risk zyada hai, jo international players ko pasand nahi aa raha. Purani approval delays aur tax issues ne bhi trust kam kiya hai. Desh ki energy security bhi global events ke karan vulnerable hai. India mein success rate bhi kam hai, lagbhag 8-10 attempts mein 1 commercial discovery milti hai, jo Malaysia se kam hai. Aur Vedanta jaise companies par D/E ratio of 2.12 ka debt bhi hai, jo risk badhata hai.
Future Ka Outlook
Future filhaal mix hai. Ek taraf toh oil prices achhe hone se PSUs ki earnings badh sakti hai. Jaise, oil price mein $10 ka increase ONGC ki EBITDA ₹13,000 crore badha sakta hai, aur Oil India ki ₹2,200 crore. Analysts ne ONGC ke liye target price badhaye hain aur Oil India ka target ₹525.05 ke aas paas hai, 'Buy' rating ke saath. Lekin ye sab tab tak hai jab tak domestic production ki problem solve nahi hoti. Industry 2031 tak 5% CAGR se grow kar sakti hai, par iske liye pichhle 10 saal se jo structural issues hain, unko solve karna padega.