Margin Compression Aur Under-recoveries Ka Khel
Asal mein hua ye hai ki international crude oil ke bhav $120-125 per barrel ke paar pahunch gaye hain, lekin India mein petrol aur diesel ke rates badhe nahi hain. Isi wajah se Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) ki marketing margins bilkul khatam ho gayi hain. Icra ke Prashant Vasisht bata rahe hain ki abhi petrol par lagbhag ₹14 aur diesel par ₹18 ka ghata ho raha hai, har litre par!
Aur yeh ghata sirf yahan nahi rukta. Cooking gas (LPG) mein toh yeh under-recoveries fiscal year 2027 tak ₹80,000 Crore pahunch sakti hain agar current trends aise hi chalte rahe. Fertiliser subsidy ka bojh bhi badh raha hai, jo budgeted ₹1.71 lakh Crore se zyada ho kar ₹2.05-2.25 lakh Crore tak ja sakta hai.
Sector Par Bhi Pressure Hai!
Is high cost pressure ki wajah se Icra ne fuel retailing, fertiliser, basic chemicals aur petrochemical sectors ke liye apna outlook 'negative' kar diya hai. Fertiliser sector mein toh maamla zyada hi garam hai, kyunki sulphur, ammonia aur natural gas ke prices bhi badh gaye hain. Urea ke pool prices $13/MMBTU se badh kar $19/MMBTU ho gaye hain.
City gas distributors bhi thoda pareshan hain. Household piped natural gas (PNG) ki margins toh stable hain, lekin compressed natural gas (CNG) margins kamzor ho sakti hain kyunki cost increase ka sirf kuch hissa hi consumers se liya ja raha hai.
Geopolitics Ka Bhi Khel Hai!
Aur haan, West Asia mein jo crisis chal raha hai, uski wajah se trade routes jaise Strait of Hormuz mein supply disruptions ho rahi hain. Yeh route toh duniya ke 20% oil aur LNG trade ka rasta hai! Isse fuel availability tight ho rahi hai aur prices par pressure aur zyada badh raha hai. Icra ka kehna hai ki agar yehi sab chalta raha toh companies ke credit profile kamzor ho sakte hain. Relief tabhi milegi jab geopolitical tensions kam honge aur supply chains normal hongi.
