Whalesbook
Aisa Kaise Chalega Bhai?
Global crude oil ke daam toh aasman chhoo rahe hain, lekin India mein petrol, diesel aur LPG ke rates ko jaise lock kar diya gaya hai. Iska seedha asar India ke bade sarkari oil companies, jaise Indian Oil (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), aur Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL) par pad raha hai.
Loss Ki Kahani, Badi Hai Maani!
Bhai, reports aa rahi hain ki FY27 ke pehle quarter (Q1) mein inka total loss lagbhag ₹1.2 lakh crore ho sakta hai. Yeh toh market ke andaze se bohot zyada hai! Pehle lag raha tha ki monthly loss ₹27,000 crore ke aas-paas hoga, par ab toh yeh figures bohot badi picture dikha rahe hain. Socho, FY26 mein inka combined profit ₹76,000 crore tha. Lekin agar aisa loss chalta raha toh, in teenon companyon ki net worth, jo September 2025 tak ₹3.48 lakh crore thi, woh do teen mahino mein negative ho sakti hai! Daily losses lagbhag ₹1,000-₹1,200 crore ho rahe hain petrol, diesel aur LPG par. Abhi IOCL ki market cap ₹2.04 trillion, BPCL ki ₹1.31 trillion, aur HPCL ki ₹80,389 crore hai, par yeh situation bohot risky hai.
Kitna loss ho raha hai per litre? Lagbhag ₹14 petrol par, ₹42 diesel par, aur ₹674 LPG ke 14.2 kg cylinder par! Yeh toh bohot bada number hai.
Rate Badhe Toh Kya Hoga?
Ab sawaal yeh hai ki companyyan karein toh karein kya? Experts keh rahe hain ki agar financial collapse se bachna hai toh prices badhana hi padega. Estimates hain ki LPG cylinder ka rate 105% tak badh sakta hai (lagbhag ₹1,868), petrol 29.5% badh kar ₹130 per litre ho sakta hai, aur diesel 36% badh kar ₹122 per litre ho sakta hai. Par bhai, yeh prices badhana sarkaar ke liye bohot risky hai. Unka focus toh inflation control karne aur logon ko sasta fuel dene par hai. Haalanki, roz ₹10 billion (matlab ₹1000 crore) ka loss kam karne ke liye ₹5 per litre petrol aur diesel mein hike ki baat chal rahi hai, par yeh itna nahi hai ki asli problem solve ho jaaye. Agar zyada badhaya toh log kam kharidenge aur inflation bhi badhegi.
Broker Ka Verdict
Bade-bade analysts bhi warn kar rahe hain. Kotak Institutional Equities ne toh in stocks ko 'sell' karne ki salah de di hai aur FY27 ke profit forecasts ko kaafi kam kar diya hai. Emkay Global ne bhi downgrade kiya hai, keh rahe hain ki HPCL ka FY27 earnings 60% tak gir sakta hai.
Global Mausam Aur Humara Haal
Aur upar se, Indian Rupee bhi kamzor ho raha hai (USD ke muqable 95.1760 par). Isse imports aur bhi mehenge ho rahe hain. Duniya ke baaki desh, jaise Japan aur UK, toh already fuel prices 30% tak badha chuke hain. Lekin India mein abhi bhi woh political will dikh nahi rahi hai. US-Iran tension ke chalte crude oil $100 per barrel se upar chal raha hai aur Strait of Hormuz mein supply issues ka bhi dar hai. India toh lagbhag 90% crude oil import karta hai, toh yeh sab humare liye bohot sensitive hai. Analysts warn kar rahe hain ki agar yeh situation chali toh India ki GDP growth FY27 mein 0.25-0.35% tak kam ho sakti hai. Sarkaar ke saamne ek taraf inflation control karne ka pressure hai, toh doosri taraf reliable energy supply sunishchit karne ka. Aur upar se yeh losses, agar prices badhaye toh demand kam hone ka risk. Dekhna hoga ki government is mushkil situation mein kya kadam uthati hai.