Whalesbook
Petrol Diesel ka Price Hike Kyun Hua?
Bhai, reason seedha hai: International market mein crude oil ka price 61% tak badh kar $113.99 per barrel ho gaya hai. Aur upar se Indian Rupee ki value dollar ke saamne 74% gir gayi hai, ab ₹94.84 chal raha hai. Is wajah se OMCs ko import karna bahut mehenga pad raha hai.
Loss itna zyada ki Rs 3 ka hike bhi kaafi nahi!
Yeh jo ₹3 per litre ka hike aaya hai na, yeh unke pure losses ko cover karne ke liye bilkul bhi enough nahi hai. Currently, OMCs ko har litre petrol par lagbhag ₹12.72 aur diesel par ₹19.82 ka nuksaan ho raha hai. Is hisaab se monthly losses ₹55,416 crore tak pahunch gaye hain. Agar crude oil prices aur badh kar $125 per barrel ho gaye, toh yeh losses petrol par ₹21.48 aur diesel par ₹28.58 per litre tak ja sakte hain.
Investor aur Inflation ki Chinta
Yeh situation Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation (BPCL), aur Hindustan Petroleum Corporation (HPCL) jaise state-owned companies ke liye bahut risky hai. Unke P/E ratios (IOCL: 5.52, BPCL: 5.24, HPCL: 4.85) dikhate hain ki investors unhe cheap maan rahe hain, par ongoing losses unke future profit ko affect kar sakte hain jab tak koi bada solution na mile.
Aur yeh mehngai ko bhi badha raha hai. Wholesale inflation toh already 42-month high yani 8.3% par hai. Agar fuel prices aur increase hue, toh CPI inflation bhi 0.20-0.30% tak badh sakta hai. Aise mein government bhi pressure mein hai, unhone duty waiver de kar consumers ko thoda relief diya hai, par company ke losses badh gaye.
Aage ka Outlook
Experts ka andaaza hai ki FY27 tak Brent crude $90-$95 per barrel reh sakta hai, aur Indian Rupee ₹96-98 tak gir sakta hai. OMCs ke paas global energy players jaisa diversification nahi hai, jo unhe aise market swings se bacha sake. Agar prices high rahe aur Rupee girta raha, toh OMCs ko ya toh government se zyada support chahiye hoga ya phir prices aur badhane padenge, jisse consumers aur investors dono pareshan honge.