Whalesbook
Daam Badhe, Par Relief Kitni?
Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Limited (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum Corporation Limited (BPCL), aur Indian Oil Corporation Limited (IOCL) yeh sabhi companies aajkal pressure mein hain. Delhi mein petrol 87 paise aur diesel 91 paise per litre mehnga ho gaya hai, ab petrol ₹98.64 aur diesel ₹91.58 mil raha hai. Analysts keh rahe hain ki companies ko roz lagbhag ₹1,000 crore ka loss ho raha hai. Lekin yeh price hike bhi kaafi nahi hai, lagta hai companies ko break-even par aane ke liye per litre ₹25 aur badhane pad sakte hain.
Global Tension Aur Rupee Ka Game
India apna lagbhag 85% crude oil import karta hai, toh jab bhi international market mein kuch gadbad hoti hai, seedha OMCs par asar padta hai. West Asia mein tension ki wajah se crude oil prices high chal rahe hain, aur ADB ne 2026 tak average $96 per barrel ka target diya hai. Upar se, apna Indian Rupee bhi weak ho raha hai. Agar Rupee ₹2 aur gir gaya na, toh crude oil ka rate aur badh jayega aur companies ke losses aur zyada ho jayenge. Refining se jo profit aa raha hai, woh fuel sales ke losses ko cover nahi kar pa raha.
Private Players Maar Rahe Hain Baazi
Jab OMCs prices control karne ki koshish kar rahe hain, tab Reliance Industries aur Nayara Energy jaise private players fayda utha rahe hain. Woh prices ko easily adjust kar sakte hain aur customers ko discounts de rahe hain, khaas kar diesel par. Is competition mein public sector companies ka market share kam hota ja raha hai. Data ke hisaab se, 19 May 2026 tak BPCL ka share ₹280.80 ke aas paas tha, HPCL ₹359 par aur IOCL ₹131.85 par trade kar raha tha. Pichle kuch months se in teeno stocks mein selling pressure dikh raha hai.
Analysts Ki Nazar Mein Kaun Strong?
Experts ka kehna hai ki HPCL par sabse zyada risk hai kyunki woh fuel selling losses se zyada affected hai. Nomura ne HPCL ko 'Neutral' rating di hai aur target price ₹440 rakha hai. Woh BPCL ('Buy', target ₹460) aur IOCL ('Buy', target ₹190) ko zyada prefer kar rahe hain kyunki unke refining operations bade hain. BPCL ki market cap ₹1.21 trillion, IOCL ki ₹1.86 trillion aur HPCL ki ₹76.3 trillion hai. March 2026 mein government ne excise duty mein changes karke OMCs ko support diya tha, par Rupee ka girna abhi bhi ek bada threat hai.
Aage Kya Hoga?
Future mein OMCs ka performance crude oil prices, Rupee aur government ki policies par depend karega. Kuch investment banks jaise Morgan Stanley aur Goldman Sachs ne toh price targets badhaye hain, par investors abhi bhi global tensions, Rupee ki stability aur competition ko lekar thoda cautious hain. Agar crude prices high rahe ya Rupee girta raha, toh companies ko ya toh aur zyada prices badhane padenge ya phir government se madad leni padegi.