Whalesbook
Ab dekho, jo global crude oil prices hain na, woh $100 ke aas paas chal rahe hain. Isse India ki badi OMCs jaise Indian Oil, BPCL, aur HPCL par bahut pressure aa raha hai. Kyunki desh mein petrol aur diesel ke rates April 2022 se badhe nahi hain, yeh companies khud nuksaan utha rahi hain. Isliye ab dealers ko cash and carry model mein kaam karna pad raha hai, matlab advance payment karna hoga. Company keh rahi hai ye normal hai, par fuel stations wale cash flow ke liye thoda pareshan ho sakte hain.
Petrol aur diesel ki baat toh theek hai, lekin LPG aur natural gas ke imports par bada risk aa gaya hai. India apna lagbhag 90% LPG aur 50-80% LNG, jo ki Middle East se aata hai, woh Strait of Hormuz se mangata hai. Agar wahan koi gadbad hui toh seedha asar padega. Isi wajah se LPG ki supply par impact bhi hua hai aur commercial use kam karna pada hai. Natural gas bhi thoda tight hai, jisse industries ko cutting karni padi hai. Achha hai ki crude oil mein humne Russia se bhi import badha liya hai, toh wahan thoda balance hai.
Aur ek badi chinta hai hamare strategic reserves ki. India ke paas jo emergency stock hai na (total capacity 5.33 million metric tonnes), woh abhi sirf 64% bhara hai, matlab 3.37 MMT ke aas paas. Agar pura bhara ho toh sirf 9.5 din ka demand cover kar sakta hai, abhi toh bas 5 din ka hi hai! India lagbhag 88.5% crude oil ke liye import par nirbhar hai.
Toh overall, OMCs ke liye structure mein hi bade risks hain. 90% import, aur 40-50% Strait of Hormuz se guzarta hai. Cash-and-carry model dikha raha hai ki companies financial pressure mein hain. Dealers ko cash flow ki dikkat ho sakti hai. SPR bhi bahut kam hai. Yahi wajah hai ki Goldman Sachs ne IOCL, BPCL, HPCL ko downgrade kiya hai, aur Moody's bhi input cost absorption aur government pricing policies ko risk bata raha hai. Upar se, girta hua rupee import ko aur mehnga kar raha hai.
Ab India kya kar raha hai? Humne Russia se crude import badha diya hai. Strategic reserves bhi badhane ki planning hai, par usmein 2030 tak ka time lag sakta hai. Government lagatar global situation par nazar rakhe hue hai.