Whalesbook
Arey, yeh jo naya Special CBM Bid Round 2026 hua hai na, isme developer ka interest toh na ke barabar dikha. India ke unconventional gas sector mein abhi bhi challenges hain. Jo 13 blocks diye gaye the, unmein se 7 pe toh kisi ne bid hi nahi kiya, yeh toh clear sign hai ki investors abhi caution mein hain. Aur 4 blocks pe toh sirf ek hi bidder aaya, matlab koi real competition hua hi nahi. Ab sirf 2 blocks pe actual bidding hogi, jahan yeh existing companies ek doosre se compete karengi, na ki naye investors ko kheench paayengi. Yeh low competition dekh kar lagta nahi ki auction sahi market value nikaal paayega.
Abhi jo results aaye hain, unse lagta hai ki rules relax karne ke baad bhi bade structural issues solve nahi hue hain. Reliance Industries, jiski value lagbhag $220 billion hai aur P/E ratio 25 hai, woh toh bid kar sakti hai. Unka aana, saath mein Oil India (market cap ~$12 billion, P/E ~18) ka aana, yeh specific strategic interests dikhata hai, na ki market ka expansion. Essar Oil and Gas Exploration and Production bhi aaya hai, jo large Raniganj CBM block operate karta hai, par unko gas evacuation aur pricing mein problems aa rahi hain. Analysts Reliance ke energy arm aur Oil India ko toh positive dekh rahe hain, par baaki companies ka itna kam interest batata hai ki sector mein kuch toh badi gadbad hai. India mein pehle bhi CBM auctions mein interest kam zyada hota raha hai, khaas kar jab policy clarity ya market economics, high costs aur lambe development times ke saath clash karte hain. Global energy transition bhi fossil fuels jaise CBM mein investment ko complicated bana raha hai, jabki capital toh renewables ki taraf jaa raha hai, haalanki natural gas ko transitional fuel mana jaata hai.
Government ne interest badhane ke liye terms ko flexible kiya tha, par lagta hai CBM exploration ke fundamental economics aur strategic sense abhi bhi risky lag rahe hain. Reliance Industries aur Oil India ke alawa itne kam bidders ka aana yeh batata hai ki 'liberalized' terms bhi investment ko safe nahi bana paa rahe hain ya phir returns itne acche nahi hain jitne dusre options mein mil sakte hain. Sirf CBM pe focus karne wali companies, ya jinke paas bade integrated energy operations nahi hain, woh mushkil mein hain. Jaise ONGC ko hi dekh lo, unke paas conventional oil aur gas assets ka bada portfolio hai aur P/E ratio 12 ke aas paas hai. Ek badi hurdle gas evacuation infrastructure ki hai, khaas kar un blocks ke liye jo existing pipelines se door hain, jisse development costs aur timelines badh jaati hai. CBM pricing, jo government policy se set hoti hai, shayad unconventional resources ke extraction ke higher costs aur risks ko poora cover nahi kar paati, khaas kar jab imported LNG ya renewable energy ke options zyada attractive hain. Global energy transition toh long-term mein fossil fuel projects mein investor interest ke liye challenge hi rahega, policy changes ke bawajood.
Toh overall, is auction mein kam participation dekh kar lagta hai ki future CBM development mein bhi kuch hi companies jo already experienced hain aur jinke paas infrastructure hai, wohi dominate karengi. Agar zyada investment chahiye toh gas pricing, dedicated infrastructure aur ek clear long-term policy framework mein fundamental improvements ki zaroorat hai, jo energy transition ko bhi dhyan mein rakhe. Jab tak yeh nahi hota, future bid rounds mein bhi similar low interest dikh sakta hai, chahe sarkar kitni bhi koshish kar le.