Whalesbook
Record profits announce karne ke baad bhi Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) ka stock neeche gir raha hai, aur iski wajah jaan na zaroori hai.
Company ne FY26 mein kamaal kar diya, March quarter mein profit 56% badh kar ₹11,377.51 crore ho gaya. Poore saal ka annual profit bhi ₹36,802.42 crore se zyada raha, thanks to record refining aur sales volumes. Lubricants aur petrochemicals business bhi zabardast perform kar rahe hain.
Lekin yeh toh sirf ek taraf ki baat hai. Asli game yeh hai ki IOC petrol, diesel aur LPG ko government ki vajah se cost se kam price par bech rahi hai, aur March mein yeh nuksan kaafi bada tha. Is situation ko West Asia mein badhti hui geopolitical tensions ne aur kharab kar diya hai.
Is sabke beech, IOC ka stock 2026 mein 24% tak neeche gir gaya hai. Share abhi ₹131.81 ke aas paas chal raha hai. Jo Nifty Energy Index hai, woh bhi 0.66% neeche tha 14 May 2026 ko.
Market ka mood IOC ke liye filhaal thoda down hai. Company ka P/E ratio 5.1x se 5.7x ke beech hai, jo industry average 20.4x aur peers ke 11.3x se bahut kam hai. Yeh dikhata hai ki market iske risks ko, khaas kar subsidized fuel ke losses ko, consider kar raha hai.
Government ke pricing policies ki wajah se IOC aur doosri sarkari companies (OMCs) petrol, diesel aur LPG cost se kam mein bechne par majboor hain. March mein yeh situation aur bigdi. IOC ko LPG losses ke liye ₹30,000 crore ka compensation mila FY25-26 ke liye, lekin petrol, diesel aur ATF ke liye koi support nahi mila. Andaza hai ki crude oil $110 se upar jaane par OMCs ko ₹75,000 crore se ₹1 lakh crore tak ka nuksan ho sakta hai. Agar FY27 ke pehle quarter mein losses badhte hain, toh FY26 ka poora profit wipe out ho sakta hai. Jab crude oil prices $120 per barrel se upar chal rahe hain (Brent), aur West Asia mein tensions hain, toh OMCs ke balance sheet par pressure padna pakka hai.
Experts kya bol rahe hain? Zyadaatar analysts IOC ko 'Buy' rating de rahe hain, aur price target ₹147.50 se ₹179.85 tak ka hai. Lekin kuch analysts ne margin pressure ke karan March 2026 mein 'Neutral' par downgrade bhi kiya hai. FY27 ke liye projections mein profit kam hone ka chance hai.
Overall, IOC ka future volatile global energy markets aur government ki pricing policies ko manage karne par depend karega. West Asia conflict ka impact April-June quarter mein dikh sakta hai.