Whalesbook
Arey bhai, IOC ke FY26 ke results toh dekh ke laga jaise company ne poore saal full power dikhai ho! Standalone profit after tax (PAT) mein 184% ka badhiya jump aaya, aur ye ₹36,802 crore tak pahunch gaya, jo FY25 ke ₹12,962 crore se kaafi zyada hai. Jaise short description mein bola, iska sabse bada reason hai operating margins ka 2.11% se double hokar 5.84% ho jaana. Sales bhi 5% badhkar ₹8.86 lakh crore ho gayi, par asli kamaal toh profit margins ka raha, jo 1.53% se 4.15% ho gaye. Q4 FY26 mein bhi profit 56.6% badha hai, matlab ekdum consistent performance!
Company ne operational front par bhi record tode hain. Refineries ne 75.4 million metric tonnes crude oil process kiya aur pipeline throughput bhi 105.3 MMT pe pahunch gaya. Total petroleum product sales 104.4 MMT rahi, jo FY25 se 4% zyada hai. Iske alawa, lubricants sales mein 15% ka zabardast growth dikha, jo industry se kaafi aage hai. Petrochemicals mein bhi record sales hui hain.
Balance sheet ko mazboot karne ke liye company ne borrowings bhi ₹23,798 crore kam kiye hain, jisse total debt ₹1.10 lakh crore ho gaya hai. Shareholder ko bhi return mila hai final dividend ke roop mein.
Par, sab kuch itna bhi rose-tinted nahi hai, dosto. Middle East mein jo tensions badh rahi hain, usse crude oil prices mein volatility aa sakti hai, jo $90-95 per barrel tak ja sakti hai FY27 mein. Agar prices $120 tak pahunchi, toh India ki GDP growth bhi 6% tak gir sakti hai. Inflation bhi ek bada concern hai, jo 6-7% tak pahunch sakta hai. Yeh sab cheezein IOC ke future performance par asar daal sakti hain, aur domestic fuel sales par losses (under-recoveries) bhi badh sakte hain, jaisa ki company ne ₹23,101.56 crore ka cumulative loss bataya hai March 2026 tak.
Valuation ke hisaab se, IOC abhi apne peers jaise Bharat Petroleum aur Hindustan Petroleum ke aas paas hi trade kar raha hai, jiska P/E ratio 5.09 se 8.54 ke beech hai. Analyst log is stock par positive hain aur ₹160-₹175 ka target de rahe hain.
Lekin, ek 'bearish' view yeh bhi hai ki margins ka itna zyada badhna shayad sustainable na ho. Geopolitical risks aur import par reliance (lagbhag 88.7% crude import karte hain) stock ko vulnerable banate hain. Stock khud bhi earnings se pehle 22% gir gaya tha. Toh bhai, numbers acche hain, par future ke risks ko nazarandaaz nahi kar sakte.