Whalesbook
Fuel Supply Hai Full, Par Dhandhe Mein Tension
Yaar, IOC, BPCL, aur HPCL ke heads ne milkar bola hai ki fuel ki koi shortage nahi hai, sab outlets bhare hue hain. Ye baat 25 March, 2026 ko kahi gayi jab Brent crude $100 per barrel ke neeche thoda gir gaya tha, aur in companies ke shares mein bhi 2% tak ka jump dekha gaya. Lekin yeh sab reassurance ke peeche ek badi picture hai.
Global Market Ka Panga Aur Price Ka Khel
Asal problem toh global market mein hai. Middle East ki tensions ke karan crude oil prices fluctuate kar rahi hain. Brent crude $98.28 se $103.00 ke beech chal raha hai. Goldman Sachs bol raha hai ki prices $85 tak ja sakti hain, jabki EIA ka kehna hai ki Q3 tak $80 se neeche aa jayengi, par short term mein $95 se upar hi rahengi. Aur India apni 88% oil needs import karta hai, toh yeh global fluctuations sidha hamare tel companies ke cost ko affect karti hain.
Share Price Kaise Hai Aur Margin Ka Kya Scene?
In companies ke P/E ratios bade low hain - IOC ke liye 5.56 se 6.73, BPCL ke liye 4.93 se 5.38, aur HPCL ke liye 4.66 se 4.75. Iska matlab hai ki investors shayad in par zyada bharosa nahi kar rahe ya companies pressure mein hain. IOC ne toh gross refining margin (GRM) mein $8.41 per barrel ka acha profit dikhaya hai aur net profit bhi four times ho gaya hai. Par baaki companies ka scene alag hai.
Ye companies May 2022 se retail fuel prices ko badha nahi paayi hain, jabki crude oil prices bahut zyada ho gayi hain. Isi wajah se inka margin kam ho raha hai. Upstream companies jaise ONGC aur Oil India ko toh fayda ho raha hai kyunki unka realization rate badh gaya hai.
Analysts Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Kotak Institutional Equities ne toh HPCL par 'Sell' rating di hai, reason bataya hai high crude prices aur price control. Macquarie ko lagta hai ki prices firm rahengi, shayad $110 tak bhi ja sakti hain agar supply mein problem rahi toh. Rupaya bhi kamzor ho raha hai, jo imported crude ko aur mehnga bana raha hai (₹93 per USD ke aas-paas). Toh bhai, jab tak prices control mein nahi aati, aur companies cost pass nahi kar pati, margin ka pressure toh rahega hi.