Whalesbook
Sarkar ka bada Faisla, Production ko boost!
Sarkar ne na sirf taxes par focus kiya, balki ab domestic output ko badhane ke liye yeh policy change laya hai. Isse ONGC aur Oil India jaisi companies ko bada fayda hoga, kyunki ab focus heavy taxes ki jagah supportive government policy par hoga. CLSA ne toh ONGC par 'Outperform' rating de di hai aur target price ₹405 rakha hai, matlab aage chal kar share mein achi tezi aa sakti hai.
Royalty Rates kam hui, Crude Prices badhe!
Ab suno, 12 May 2026 se onshore oil aur gas par royalty 16.66% se gir kar sirf 10% ho gayi hai. Aur offshore blocks mein bhi 9.09% se 8% kar di gayi hai. Yeh ek bada deal hai, kyunki Brent crude prices $105.27 per barrel ke aas paas chal rahe hain, jo ki CLSA ke $65-$80 range se kaafi upar hai. CLSA ke hisaab se, is policy change se ONGC ke earnings per share mein ₹2.5-₹3 ka jump aa sakta hai, aur company ki fair value 7-9% badh jayegi. Isi khabar ke baad, 12 May 2026 ko stock 7% tak bhaga tha.
ONGC ka Valuation aur Analysts ke Views
Par bhaiyo, valuation ka scene thoda complex hai. ONGC ka Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio lagbhag 9.30x hai, jo ki uske competitor Oil India ke P/E (11.94x se 17.36x) se kam hai. Iska matlab hai ki ONGC earnings ke hisaab se kam value kar raha hai. Pichle kuch saalon mein ONGC ka P/E 141.8x (March 2021) tak gaya tha, aur 4.5x (March 2023) tak bhi gira tha. March 2026 ki reports bata rahi thi ki ONGC ka production growth flat tha, jabki Oil India acha perform kar raha tha.
Aage kya chalega? Risks aur Opinions!
Ab analysts bhi is par alag alag rai de rahe hain. CLSA toh full support mein hai, par JPMorgan ne price target kam kiya hai aur Goldman Sachs ne toh 'Sell' rating di hai. Royalty cut achi khabar hai, par operational performance aur future policy changes jaise risks abhi bhi hain. Kuch reports ne March 2026 tak ONGC ke production growth ko Oil India se piche bataya tha, toh yeh ek concern hai.
Future Outlook
CLSA ka ₹405 ka target price hai, jo current Brent crude price ($105.27/bbl) se kaafi zyada hai. Dusre analyst price targets March 2026 tak ₹292.46 aur ₹330-₹343 ke beech the. High crude prices aur govt support ke chalte abhi toh positive lag raha hai, par investors dekhenge ki ONGC production growth aur results mein kaise convert karta hai.