Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyon aur behno, Mideast mein jo chal raha hai uska asar ab India ke oil imports par bhi dikh raha hai. Sabse badi khabar ye hai ki Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) ne 7 saal baad Iran se crude oil mangwana shuru kar diya hai.
Is news ka asar turant IOC ke stock par bhi dikha. Aaj subah stock ₹143.00 par open hua aur 6.37% upar chala gaya. Intraday mein toh ₹143.99 tak pahunch gaya, halanki baad mein thoda ₹141.31 ke aas paas trade ho raha tha. Global market mein bhi crude oil prices mein kafi upar neeche ho raha hai. Dekho, Brent crude ab $93.80 per barrel par hai, jo March mein $118/bbl tak pahunch gaya tha Mideast tensions aur Strait of Hormuz ki bandishon ki wajah se. WTI crude bhi gira hai. EIA ka kehna hai ki 2026 tak supply mein gadbad reh sakti hai.
Ye Iran se oil import karna India ki energy strategy ka bada hissa hai. Ab sirf Middle East par depend nahi rahega. India Venezuela se bhi 12 million barrels tak import badha raha hai aur Russia se toh already kafi aa raha hai. Ye sab isliye ho raha hai kyunki Strait of Hormuz bahut important route hai, jahan se 40% oil aata hai aur agar band ho gaya toh badi problem ho jayegi. India apni 88% oil requirement ke liye import par depend karta hai.
Ye Iran wala deal shayad pehle hi ho gaya tha jab tensions itni nahi thi, par abhi ise sign karna ek smart move hai. Analyst Sumit Ritolia ka kehna hai ki ye sirf reaction nahi, balki ek long-term strategy hai.
Par bhai, sab kuch itna bhi smooth nahi hai. US sanctions ka waiver temporary hai, toh long-term import uncertain hai. MarketsMOJO ne toh IOC ko 'Hold' rating de di hai kyunki stock 24.47% gir chuka hai apne high ₹188 se. Agar oil prices high rahi aur supply mein dikkat hui, toh India ko ₹2 lakh crore ka nuksan ho sakta hai aur Rupee par bhi pressure aayega.
Analyst bhi thode confused hain. Kuch 'Buy' kar rahe hain, par 'Hold' rating bhi hai. Ministry of Petroleum ne confirm kiya hai ki Iranian oil ke liye payment mein koi problem nahi aa rahi hai. Par jab tak Mideast mein shaanti nahi hoti aur Strait of Hormuz safe nahi hota, India ki energy security thodi shaky rahegi.