Whalesbook
Dekho, yeh jo crude oil ka price aajkal $100 per barrel ke neeche aa gaya hai, jaisa Brent ka rate ab $94.27 chal raha hai, iska seedha asar upstream companies par pad raha hai. Isliye ONGC aur Oil India jaise shares 2.8% tak neeche gir gaye. Lekin dusri taraf, BPCL, HPCL aur IOC jaise OMCs 5.6% tak upar gaye hain. Iski main wajah hai India ka tax adjustment. Sarkaaar ne diesel exports par Special Additional Excise Duty (SAED) 158% badha kar ₹55.5 per litre kar diya hai, aur ATF par bhi 42% badha kar ₹42 per litre kar diya hai. Experts keh rahe hain ki yeh sab domestic fuel retailers ko bachane ke liye kiya gaya hai. Is sab ke beech, overall market bhi theek-thaak raha, BSE Sensex 1.57% upar gaya.
Market mein abhi upstream aur downstream ka performance bilkul alag dikh raha hai. Pichle ek saal mein toh ONGC ne 29.09% aur OIL ne 32.95% ka badhiya return diya hai. Unke P/E ratios bhi 7.39 se 13.31 ke beech hain, jisse lagta hai ki future mein aur growth ki umeed hai. Dusri taraf, OMCs jaise BPCL aur HPCL ka ek saal ka return kam ya negative raha hai (BPCL -0.09%, HPCL -8.58%). Unke P/E ratios toh bahut kam hain, lagbhag 5.16 se 5.94 (BPCL) aur 4.75 se 4.83 (HPCL), matlab ye abhi 'value stocks' lage hain. Lekin analysts ka kehna hai ki BPCL mein 15-50% tak aur HPCL mein 27-52% tak ka upside aa sakta hai! Unke targets bhi BPCL ke liye ₹330-460 aur HPCL ke liye ₹443-531 hain. Analysts ko lagta hai ki domestic policy support, crude prices se zyada important hai in companies ke liye.
Haan, OMCs ko tax se thoda support mil raha hai, par risks toh abhi bhi hain. Upstream companies toh seedha volatile global crude prices se judi hain. Agar prices $80 ke neeche gaye, toh ONGC aur OIL ki profitability par serious impact padega. Aur OMCs ke liye, yeh windfall tax agar badh gaya ya badla gaya toh unka profit kam ho sakta hai. Brokerage firm Nomura ne kaha hai ki tax structure se refinery ko export price par diesel/ATF bechne mein fayda ho sakta hai, jisse unka sourcing cost kam ho jayega. Lekin isse OMCs ka margin ab government ki fiscal policy par aur zyada depend karega. Plus, EV aur alternative fuels ka trend badh raha hai, toh long-term mein demand ka kya hoga, ye bhi ek sawaal hai.
Sabse important baat yeh hai ki analysts ka overall view Indian oil sector par abhi bhi positive hai, bas expectations alag hain. ONGC aur Oil India ko zyada tar 'Buy' rating mili hai aur unke price targets mein thoda upside dikh raha hai. HPCL ko 'Neutral' se 'Buy' mil raha hai aur kafi upside potential hai. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC) ke liye bhi 'Neutral' se 'Buy' ratings hain, aur targets ₹160-175 ke aas paas hain, matlab lagbhag 19% ka upside ho sakta hai. Lekin BPCL ko kai analysts ne 'Strong Buy' bola hai, jiske targets ₹330 se ₹460 tak hain, matlab abhi current levels se kafi growth ki sambhavna hai. Companies bhi future ke liye planning kar rahi hain. Jaise BPCL coal gasification aur bioethanol refining mein bhi venture kar rahi hai, taki future energy needs ko cater kar sakein.