Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki aaj, Tuesday ko, jab global market mein tensions chal rahi hain, hamare Nifty Oil & Gas index mein 0.64% ki tezi aayi. Iska seedha reason hai petrol aur diesel prices mein phir se hike hona – pichhle 7 din mein yeh doosri baar hua hai. Petrol aur diesel ab 90 paise prati litre tak mehenge ho gaye hain, aur CNG bhi.
Is rally mein sabse aage toh Indraprastha Gas raha, jo 2.10% se bhi zyada upar gaya. Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), Bharat Petroleum (BPCL), Indian Oil (IOCL), Adani Total Gas, aur Chennai Petroleum Corporation bhi 1% se zyada badhe. Lekin haan, kuch stocks neeche bhi gaye jaise Mahanagar Gas, ONGC, aur GAIL, jo 0.80% tak kamzor hue.
Ab main point – yeh prices badhane ke baad bhi OMCs ko roz nuksaan kyun ho raha hai? Petroleum Secretary Sujata Sharma ne bataya ki unke daily under-recoveries ab ₹750 crore tak aa gaye hain, jo pehle ₹1,000 crore the. Asal gadbad hai high global crude oil prices mein, jo West Asia, especially Iran aur Strait of Hormuz ke tensions ki wajah se upar-neche ho rahe hain. Brent crude $109 aur WTI crude $103 per barrel ke aas paas hai.
Brokers bhi is situation par nazar rakhe hue hain. IOCL aur BPCL ko zyada preferred mana ja raha hai kyunki unke refining operations better hain. Nomura ne IOCL par 'Buy' rating dekar target ₹190 rakha hai, aur BPCL ka target ₹460 hai, woh bhi 'Buy' ke saath. Lekin HPCL ke liye situation thodi tricky hai. Nomura ne use 'Neutral' kar diya hai, target ₹440, kyunki marketing mein uska exposure zyada hai aur losses bhi. Macquarie ne HPCL ko 'Outperform' kaha hai, target ₹510, par yeh bhi bataya ki petrol par ₹18 aur diesel par ₹35 prati litre ka loss ho raha hai. Reliance Industries ko toh sab 'Strong Buy' kar rahe hain, target ₹1,696.63 ke aas paas. GAIL ka target bhi ₹193.99 hai.
Jo problem OMCs face kar rahe hain, woh hai unstable crude prices aur domestic retail prices ka gap. Nomura ka andaaza hai ki costs ko fully cover karne ke liye prices ko ₹25 prati litre aur badhana pad sakta hai. West Asia ki tensions toh supply ko bhi risk mein daal rahi hain.
Toh dekhte hain, aage kya hota hai. Global prices stable hote hain ya nahi, aur government OMCs ke losses ko kam karne ke liye kya karti hai. Invest wisely, dosto!