Whalesbook
Toh hua yun ki, government ne fuel prices dobara badha diye hain, aur iska positive impact dikha IOCL aur HPCL ke shares par, jo approx 2.24% aur 2.15% tak upar gaye. BPCL bhi dikha, par thoda sa neeche 2.67% gire. Iske saath hi, Middle East ka tension bhi kam hua, jisse global crude oil prices bhi thande pade, aur Nifty 0.4% aur Sensex 0.5% bhi upar gaye.
Par Loss Ka Kya?
Asal maamla yeh hai ki yeh price hike, companies ke bade losses ko cover karne ke liye bilkul bhi kaafi nahi hai. Reports bata rahi hain ki petrol par lagbhag ₹15.6 per litre aur diesel par ₹22 per litre ka nuksaan ho raha tha. Yeh new rates uss nuksaan ko poora nahi nikal pa rahe, aur analysts ka kehna hai ki companies ko daily ₹500 crore tak ka nuksaan ho sakta hai.
Analysts Ka Mood Serious Hai
Yahi wajah hai ki analysts ka mood abhi serious hai. Kuch ne toh HPCL, BPCL, IOC shares ko 'Sell' rating de di hai aur target price 57% tak giraye hain. Ambit Institutional Equities jaise firms ne toh seedha 'Sell' bol diya hai, bol rahe hain ki agar crude oil aise hi mehnga raha toh profits par bohot pressure aayega.
Valuation Ka Scene
Aise mein, in companies ka valuation bhi interesting hai. IOCL ka P/E ratio 5.54, BPCL ka 5.71, aur HPCL ka 4.24 hai. Industry ka average P/E lagbhag 14.25 hai. Toh figures kam lag rahe hain, jisse lagta hai ki shares cheap hain, par yeh market ki chinta bhi dikha raha hai ki future earnings stable nahi hongi.
Geopolitics Aur Energy Transition Ka Factor
Geopolitics ki baat karein toh US aur Iran ke beech tension kam hone se crude oil prices (Brent $100 ke upar) thode thande pade. Par India toh 85% oil import karta hai, toh thoda bhi global upar-neeche hone se fark padta hai. Aur long-term mein toh renewable energy ka trend aa hi raha hai, jisse in traditional companies ko bhi adapt karna padega.
Kitni Hike Chahiye?
Nomura jaise brokerage firms ka kehna hai ki companies ko loss se nikalne ke liye petrol-diesel par ₹15-20 per litre ki hike chahiye. Toh bhai, jab tak government bade rates badhane ki permission nahi deti, ya companies khud refine karke zada profit nahi banati, tab tak inke liye raasta mushkil hi rahega.