Whalesbook
Toh bhaiyo, Indian Oil Corporation (IOCL) ne FY26 ka last quarter ekdum dhamakedar nikala hai! Unka standalone adjusted EBITDA ₹219 billion se bhi upar gaya, jo pichle saal se 50% se bhi zyada hai. Operations bhi record level par the. Refinery throughput FY26 mein 75.451 MMT raha, jo 5% growth hai. Pipeline throughput bhi 105.556 MMT ke record par pahunch gaya. Total sales volume bhi 5% badhkar 105.117 MMT ho gaya.
Petroleum products ki sales 5% badhkar 88.967 MMT hui aur petrochemicals mein 4% ka growth aaya, jo 3.294 MMT raha. Aur net profit ki baat karein toh March quarter mein yeh 56.6% bhadkar ₹11,377.51 crore ho gaya, pichhle saal yeh ₹7,264.85 crore tha. Revenue bhi 6.9% badhkar ₹2,32,855.33 crore ho gaya. Haalanki, company ne GRM (Gross Refining Margins) ka data nahi bataya, shayad energy prices mein bahut zyada fluctuations chal rahe hain.
Par haan, itna accha Q4 result hone ke baad bhi, analysts FY27 ke outlook ko lekar thode conservative hain. West Asia mein chal rahe conflict ke wajah se petrol, diesel aur LPG par short-term retail losses ho sakte hain, jisse profit forecasts par asar padega. Antique Stock Broking ne FY27 ke liye Brent crude ka assumption $65 se badha kar $75 per barrel kar diya hai, jisse FY27 Ebitda estimate 39% kam ho gaya hai. Fir bhi unka 'Buy' rating aur ₹200 ka target price hai.
Nomura ne toh FY27 aur FY28 ke Ebitda estimates kaafi cut kar diye hain aur target price bhi ₹190 se ghatakar ₹180 kar diya hai. Woh keh rahe hain ki stock historical averages se neeche trade kar raha hai.
ICICI Securities ne bhi West Asia conflict ke karan FY27 EPS forecast kam kiya hai, lekin 'Buy' rating ke saath ₹185 ka target diya hai, capacity expansions aur strong balance sheet ko positive points bataya hai. IOCL ka P/E ratio 10.5x hai, jo industry average 14.2x se kam hai. BPCL aur HPCL bhi aise hi crude volatility pressure face kar rahe hain.
Investors ki sabse badi chinta West Asia conflict ka ongoing impact hai. High crude prices se inventory losses aur retail margins kam ho sakte hain. State-owned companies jaise IOCL par fuel prices ko subsidize karne ka pressure bhi aa sakta hai, jisse losses badh sakte hain. Operational volumes acchi hain, lekin volatile prices mein profit uncertain hai. History mein bhi IOCL ka performance crude price shocks se sensitive raha hai.
GRM figures na hone se investors ko refining profitability track karna mushkil ho raha hai. Stock ka upar jaana volatile crude prices se ruk sakta hai. Pichle crude spikes ne Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) ke stocks ko temporary pullback diya tha. IOCL ka current RSI lagbhag 55 hai.
Aage dekhein toh IOCL ke capacity expansions aur petrochemicals par focus long-term growth ke liye accha hai. Lekin near-to-medium term outlook crude oil prices aur West Asia ki stability par depend karta hai. Brokerage targets ₹180 se ₹200 ke beech hain, jo uncertainties ke beech ek cautiously optimistic view dikhate hain. Company ka strong balance sheet aur operational scale hi uski badi strengths hain.