Whalesbook
Toh bhai, abhi sabse bada sawaal yahi hai ki yeh dono Gas companies – IGL aur MGL – Q4 mein kya kamaal dikhayengi. 7th May ko inke audited results announce honge, aur market bahut closely watch kar raha hai kyunki Q3 mein ekdum alag picture dikhi thi. IGL ka profit toh bhari bharkam badha tha, lagbhag 25% tak, jabki MGL ka profit 9.8% gir gaya tha aur ₹201.1 crore pe aa gaya tha, despite revenue badhne ke. Ab dekhte hain Q4 mein yeh trend change hota hai ya wahi chalta rehta hai.
Sector ki baat karein toh India ka City Gas Distribution (CGD) business zordaar grow kar raha hai, saal mein lagbhag 6% tak. Government bhi natural gas ko promote kar rahi hai. Natural gas prices monthly adjust hote hain crude oil ke hisaab se. Gujarat Gas ka P/E ratio 23.19 hai, MGL ka 11.78 aur IGL ka 14.04. Is hisaab se MGL thoda sasta lag raha hai. MGL ka earnings pichle saal 8.9% gira hai, jo industry average se kam hai. IGL ka P/E industry average 16.1x ke kareeb hai. MGL ke profit mein kami ke baad bhi, analysts 'Buy' recommend kar rahe hain, upside potential dikha rahe hain.
Par risks bhi hain, especially MGL ke liye. Q3 mein revenue badhne ke bawajood profit girna margin pressure ya operating cost badhne ka issue ho sakta hai. Aur MGL par ₹54.33 crore ka GST liability ka case bhi chal raha hai.
Aur haan, global scene bhi affect kar sakta hai. West Asia crisis se LNG supply mein problem aa sakti hai, jisse CGD sales mein 8-10% tak ki kami ho sakti hai. Brent crude aur spot LNG ke badhte prices bhi margins ko daba sakte hain.
Long term mein toh CGD sector ka future bright hai. Analysts ko umeed hai ki MGL ka Q4 earnings 6.6% tak grow karega. IGL ka focus volume growth aur stable margins par rahega, shayad lower tariffs aur tax benefits se help mile. Basically, investors abhi yahi analyze kar rahe hain ki kaun si company is rally mein zyada dam dikha paayegi aur kaun si thodi piche reh jayegi. Q4 results iska bada clue denge.