Whalesbook
Volumes ki toofani tezi, prices mein girawat?
Yaar, IEX ne Q4 FY26 mein electricity trading mein 39.4 billion units ka record volume cross kiya hai, jo pichle saal se 24.3% zyaada hai! Iski wajah hai real-time market mein hui 48.2% ki tezi aur green market mein 26.5% ka jump. Renewable Energy Certificate (REC) trading bhi 71.7 lakh units ke record par pahunchi. Poore FY26 mein, 141 billion units trade hue, jo 17% ka growth hai.
Par ek interesting baat ye hai ki ye volumes badhne ke bawajood electricity prices kam hui hain. Day-ahead market ka price 13.7% gir kar ₹3.86 ho gaya aur RTM prices bhi 16% down rahi. Ye sab higher supply from sources like renewables aur coal ki wajah se hua.
Naye markets mein IEX ki entry
Ab IEX sirf bijli tak nahi rukne wala. Company ne coal trading ke liye bhi in-principle approval le liya hai aur ek alag coal exchange launch karne wali hai. Isse future mein revenue aur fee income badhne ki poori umeed hai. Carbon markets mein bhi IEX kaafi serious hai, jiska market 2026 se 2034 tak 31.84% se 43.2% CAGR se badh kar $400 billion se bhi upar jaane wala hai.
Aur bhai, unka gas exchange, IGX, bhi mast chal raha hai. Pichle 9 mahine mein 48% PAT growth dikhaya hai aur December 2026 tak ₹600-700 crore ka IPO laane ka plan hai. Sahi hai, diversification pe zor hai!
Regulatory hurdles aur Valuation ka game
Lekin yaar, sab kuch itna smooth nahi hai. Market coupling ko lekar regulatory uncertainty bani hui hai. Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) market coupling ke favor mein hai aur Appellate Tribunal for Electricity (APTEL) ne IEX ki challenge ko reject kar diya hai. Isse IEX ka market share jo pehle 90% se zyada tha, woh kam hokar 60-70% tak aa sakta hai.
Jab market coupling ka idea pehli baar aaya tha, tab stock 28% gir gaya tha, signaling investor worries. Abhi company ka valuation bhi kaafi attractive ho gaya hai, forward P/E ratio 22 times chal raha hai, jo pehle 45-50x tak tha. Analyst log abhi mixed hain, consensus 'Hold' ka hai aur average price target ₹142.00 ke aas paas hai.
Toh overall, IEX growth dikha raha hai aur naye sectors mein enter kar raha hai, jo long term ke liye achha hai. Lekin market coupling ka issue solve hone tak thoda wait and watch karna padega. Lowered valuations se investors ko ek naya entry point mil sakta hai, agar wo regulatory risk ko manage kar sakein.