Whalesbook
Geopolitical Tensions Ne Machaya Haal, Crude Oil Hua Mehenga
Kal kya hua ki Brent crude futures $70 per barrel ke aas paas pahunch gaye. Iska sabse bada reason hai US aur Iran ke beech badhti hui tensions. Jab international market mein crude oil mehenga hota hai, toh Indian Oil Marketing Companies (OMCs) jaise BPCL aur IOCL ke liye seedha pressure ban jata hai. Kyunki ye companies petrol, diesel kharidti hain international prices par, aur jab ye mehnga ho jata hai toh unke margins kam hone lagte hain, especially agar woh retail prices ko turant na badhayein. Analysts ka kehna hai ki crude mein thoda sa bhi badhav ye companies ke liye margin ko tight kar sakta hai agar prices jaldi adjust na hon.
Isi wajah se, Nifty Oil & Gas index 1 per cent se zyada gir gaya hai, jo Nifty 50 ke 0.52% ke decline se bhi zyada hai. Index mein jo 15 stocks hain, usme se 13 stocks neeche gir rahe hain. Indraprastha Gas, Mahanagar Gas, aur Bharat Petroleum Corporation toh top decliners mein se hain. BPCL aur Reliance Industries ko index ko neeche le jaane mein sabse bada hath bataya ja raha hai.
Sector Mein Alag-Alag Kahani: ONGC Ki Tezi Aur Baakiyon Ka Girna
Jabki pura sector pressure mein hai, Oil and Natural Gas Corporation (ONGC) ne dhoom macha di hai! Stock 2.1% bhag kar ₹280.30 ke 52-week high par pahunch gaya. Yeh dikhata hai ki crude oil badhne ka fayda sabko ek jaisa nahi hota. Exploration aur production karne wali companies jaise ONGC ko fayda hota hai kyunki unka revenue badh jata hai, par OMCs jo fuel bechti hain, unka profit kam ho jata hai. Currently, ONGC ka P/E ratio lagbhag 8.14 hai, BPCL ka 7.54 aur IOCL ka 7.34 hai. Reliance Industries ka P/E ratio zyada hai, lagbhag 23.6x se 36.28x, kyunki unka business diversification zyada hai.
Poora Nifty Oil & Gas index ka P/E ratio lagbhag 10.6 hai. Pichhle 12 mahine mein Nifty Oil & Gas index 21.8% bhaga hai, jo Nifty 50 ke 12.16% gain se behtar hai. Par abhi jo geopolitical situation hai, woh downstream companies ke liye temporary headwind (mushkil) ban gayi hai.
Margin Ka Dar Aur Geopolitical Risk
OMCs ke liye sabse badi chinta yahi hai ki woh crude oil ke badhte huye rates ko turant customers par pass on nahi kar pati hain. Jab bhi bade tel utpadak regions mein tensions badhti hain, toh tel ki prices mein spike aur volatility aa jati hai. Reports hain ki US President aur Iran ke beech negotiations mein rukawat ke karan tensions aur badh sakti hain, jisse oil prices par risk premium badh raha hai. Aisi situation mein, agar companies apna stock achhe se manage kar payein toh unhe fayda ho sakta hai, par margin kam hone ka risk bhi rehta hai agar prices badhane mein deri ho jaye.
Aur ek baat hai, US ki non-farm payroll data ne economic strength dikhai hai, jisse demand badh sakti hai. Lekin global economic uncertainties ke beech is demand ka sustainable hona bhi ek sawal hai. Exploration companies jaise ONGC aur Oil India par bhi government ka windfall tax lag sakta hai agar prices ek limit se upar jayen, toh woh bhi ek 'no-win' situation ban jati hai.
Analysts Kya Bol Rahe Hain?
Analysts filhal thode cautious hain. Religare Broking ke Ajit Mishra kehte hain ki agar Brent crude $70 ke upar nikal gaya toh refining companies ko fayda ho sakta hai, ya phir OMCs mein profit booking ho sakti hai. Bonanza Portfolio ke Abhinav Tiwari ka bhi yahi kehna hai ki crude mein choti si bhi badhotri OMC ki profitability par bohot bada impact kar sakti hai agar retail prices uske hisab se na badhein.
Technical charts par dekhen toh Nifty Oil & Gas Index 11,800 ke level ke upar rehta hai toh outlook theek hai, aur 11,600-11,800 ke level par strong support hai. Analysts ka consensus bhi positive hi hai. Reliance Industries ke liye 'Strong Buy' ka consensus hai aur target ₹1,716 hai. BPCL ke liye bhi 'Buy' consensus hai aur target ₹424 ke aas paas hai. ONGC ko bhi majority analysts 'Buy' rating de rahe hain aur target ₹276 ke paas hai.