Whalesbook
Asia mein badhti geopolitical tensions ki wajah se global crude oil prices ekdum se $126 per barrel ke paar pahunch gaye hain. Reports keh rahi hain ki Iran ke sath US-Israel conflict ko suljhane ki baatcheet atak gayi hai, jisse major oil-producing regions se supply mein rukawat hone ka dar badh gaya hai. Iska seedha asar Indian oil marketing companies (OMCs) par pad raha hai aur overall market sentiment bhi kharab ho raha hai.
Is pressure ka asar aaj Nifty Oil & Gas index par bhi dikha, jo subah tak 1.65% gir kar 11,592 par aa gaya. Adani Total Gas ke shares 4% se zyada toote, jabki Reliance Industries bhi 1.94% neeche aaya. Baaki bade OMCs jaise Mahanagar Gas, GAIL, Hindustan Petroleum (HPCL), aur Bharat Petroleum (BPCL) bhi 2% se zyada gire hain.
Market experts keh rahe hain ki crude price spike ka main reason supply disruption ka darr hai, jisne ek risk premium add kar diya hai. Global supply ko lekar concerns tab aur badh gayi jab Strait of Hormuz, jo energy ke liye ek vital shipping route hai, ke block hone ki khabrein aayi. Reports bata rahi hain ki Tehran ne shipping restrict kar di hai aur US bhi Iranian vessels ko block kar raha hai, jisse standoff aur badh gaya hai.
Yeh sab tab ho raha hai jab Opec+ nations se around 188,000 barrels per day ki modest output increase ki ummeed hai. Lekin analysts ka kehna hai ki is choti adjustment ka impact, ongoing supply tightness aur UAE ke OPEC+ se alag hone ki wajah se hone wali market uncertainty ke saamne kam ho sakta hai.
Halanki, kuch experts selective optimism dikha rahe hain. Gaurav Sharma, jo Globe Capital mein head of equity commodity hain, ne kaha ki crude prices ka badhna Indian industry aur OMCs ke liye acha nahi hai. Refining sector mein unko zyada opportunities nahi dikh rahi. Sharma ko Oil India Limited aur Chennai Petroleum Corporation (CPCL) refining mein pasand hain, dono par bullish view hai. Reliance Industries ke liye unhone patience rakhne ko kaha hai, entry ₹1,435–₹1,440 ke aas paas karne ki salah di hai, jahan se targets ₹1,480 aur ₹1,520 ho sakte hain. Tab tak unki pasand Oil India aur CPCL hain.
Dusri taraf, Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, ka kehna hai ki market ka near-term direction crude price stability aur Strait of Hormuz ke aas paas ki developments par depend karega. US President Donald Trump aur oil companies ke beech discussions, jiska aim Iran ke ports ki potential prolonged blockade ka impact kam karna hai, ne bhi extended supply disruptions ko lekar worries badha di hain. Market ab de-escalation ya supply routes ke aur tight hone ke signs dekhega.